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Best Bets: 2024 WSL Western Australia Margaret River Pro Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2024 WSL Western Australia Margaret River Pro Pre-Event Odds Analysis

The 2024 Championship Tour heads to the powerful waves of Western Australia for Stop No. 5, the Margaret River Pro. This event carries extra weight as it’s the last chance for surfers to secure their spot on tour before the dreaded Mid-season Cut. Some big names like Gabriel Medina and Italo Ferreira are teetering on the edge of dropping off the CT if they can’t deliver at Main Break. Get ready for a pressure-packed contest with major title race and career implications.

Before we dive into the odds and betting picks, let’s set the stage for this year’s Margaret River Pro. After a scintillating win at Bells Beach, 18-year-old prodigy Caitlin Simmers will sport the yellow leader jersey for the first time in her young career. On the men’s side, Griffin Colapinto maintains the top spot despite finishing runner-up to childhood friend Cole Houshmand at Bells. Will the ever-dangerous West Oz locals play spoiler, or can the international field stamp their authority at one of the world’s most challenging waves? Time to survey the field and identify the best bets.

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Schedule and How to Watch Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024

The Margaret River Pro waiting period opens on Thursday, April 11 and runs through Sunday, April 21. The primary competition venue is Main Break – a demanding, righthand reef break known for dishing out serious punishment. If the swell is pumping, the early rounds may run at the nearby slab known as The Box.

Stay tuned for updates as the event approaches. To catch every thrilling moment live, simply head over to the WSL official site.

Outsider Picks – Men’s Division

Surfer

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

John John Florence

+732

$166.40

Gabriel Medina

+953

$210.60

Yago Dora

+1139

$247.80

John John Florence (+732) is looking to build on his solid start to the 2024 season and cement his place among the WSL Final 5. The two-time world champion currently sits at World No. 3, but he knows that a strong performance at Margaret River is crucial to maintaining his spot at the top of the rankings. With an impressive track record at this event, including a win in 2017 and a runner-up finish in 2019, Florence has the experience and skill set to thrive in the powerful waves of Main Break. If he can find his rhythm early and unleash his full repertoire of searing turns and tube rides, the Hawaiian prodigy could be unstoppable.

Betting on a proud champion to rebound at a venue where he’s enjoyed sustained success is always an enticing proposition – especially when that champion is Gabriel Medina (+953). To say the Brazilian superstar has struggled out of the gates in 2024 would be a gross understatement. The three-time world champ currently sits 20th in the rankings, though he is still above the Mid-season Cut line and has a history of thriving when the stakes are highest. Medina has won the Margaret River Pro twice before and will be surfing with a point to prove. At juicy +953 odds, he could prove to be the value bet of the event.

Yago Dora (+1139) may be flying under the radar heading into the Margaret River Pro, but the Brazilian aerialist has the skills to shake up the competition. Despite an uncharacteristically slow start to the 2024 season, Dora’s current ranking of 16th puts him within striking distance of the top 10. The 27-year-old has proven himself capable of performing in a variety of conditions, including the powerful waves on offer at Main Break. If Dora can find his rhythm and unleash his progressive air game, he could easily outperform his generous odds and make a significant move up the leaderboard.

Expert Pick for Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024 – Men’s Division

We’re backing local legend Jack Robinson to come up trumps at his home event. If the forecast delivers waves in the double-overhead range, there’s simply no one more dominant than the Margaret River native in the bone-crunching surf of Main Break. Pencil in Robinson for his second win of the 2024 season.

2024 WSL Futures Update – Men’s Division

Surfer

Champion

Payout on $20

Top 5

Payout on $20

Griffin Colapinto

+120

$44.00

-19,900

$20.10

Ethan Ewing

+235

$67.00

-2903

$20.69

Jack Robinson

+432

$106.40

-388

$25.15

Gabriel Medina

+1262

$272.40

-127

$35.75

John John Florence

+2850

$590.00

+150

$50.00

Kanoa Igarashi

+5852

$1190.40

+150

$50.00

Jake Marshall

+6797

$1379.40

+214

$62.80


The 2024 WSL Men’s Championship Tour futures odds have seen significant shifts following the thrilling conclusion of the Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach. California’s Griffin Colapinto remains the firm favorite to claim his maiden world title, with his odds shortening from +304 pre-Bells to a commanding +120 after his runner-up finish. 


Current World No. 2 Ethan Ewing also saw his championship odds improve from +384 to +235 after another strong showing in Victoria. The stylish Aussie looks poised to make a serious run at the top spot if he can maintain his blistering start to the season. Meanwhile, Jack Robinson, who suffered an early exit at Bells, will be looking to bounce back at his home event in Margaret River, where a strong result could put him firmly back in the title race.


Notably, two-time world champion John John Florence, currently sitting at No. 3 in the rankings, finds himself at a crucial juncture in the season. While his championship odds have lengthened after a disappointing result at Bells, the Hawaiian possesses the talent and experience to turn his campaign around. A solid performance at Margaret River could be the catalyst Florence needs to reassert himself as a genuine title threat and build momentum heading into the back half of the season.

Best Bets and Picks for Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024 – Women’s Division

Top Picks and Bets – Women’s Division

Surfer

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Caitlin Simmers

+269

$73.80

Caroline Marks

+322

$84.40

Tyler Wright

+360

$92.00

It’s impossible to look past Caitlin Simmers (+269) as the woman to beat at the 2024 Margaret River Pro. The 18-year-old phenom has taken the tour by storm in her sophomore season, backing up a landmark victory at Pipeline with another tour de force at Bells Beach. Simmers’ preternatural poise in waves of consequence belies her relative inexperience at the CT level. The newly minted World No. 1 will face intense pressure to validate her rapid ascent against one of the most challenging fields in women’s surfing, but Simmers has proven time and again that the bigger the moment, the more she shines. Look for the young Californian to rise to the occasion and firmly establish herself as the new face of the sport with a third victory in five events.

Caroline Marks (+322) has rediscovered her best form at just the right time. After a patchy start to the 2024 season, the 21-year-old American roared back to life with an emphatic semifinal finish at Bells Beach. Marks will draw confidence from her strong track record at Margaret River, which has seen her advance to the final four in both 2021 and 2022. The powerful goofy-footer boasts an explosive backhand attack that is more than capable of taming Main Break at its most ferocious. With a spot in the top 5 beckoning, Marks will be fired up to put an exclamation point on her turnaround with a career-defining win in West Oz.

Write off Tyler Wright (+360) at your own peril. The two-time world champ may be in the unfamiliar position of battling to avoid the Mid-season Cut, but there’s arguably no one more comfortable in the bone-crunching surf of Margaret River. Wright has been a perennial threat at this event, winning it all the way back in 2016 and reaching the final as recently as last season. The Australian legend can never be discounted in waves of consequence, and her wealth of experience navigating Main Break could prove invaluable if the conditions turn treacherous. With her CT future on the line, Wright will have all the motivation she needs to remind the surfing world just how dominant she can be.

Outsider Picks – Women’s Division

Surfer

Event Winner Odds

Payout on $20

Molly Picklum

+410

$102.00

Johanne Defay

+891

$198.20

Brisa Hennessy

+2028

$425.60

After a standout finals appearance at Bells Beach, Molly Picklum (+410) will be looking to ride that momentum into Margaret River. The stylish Aussie natural-footer, currently ranked third in the world, has all the tools to excel on the open walls of Main Break. With blistering speed, laser-like precision, and the ability to blend multiple high-risk maneuvers, Picklum is a genuine threat to claim her third CT event win in front of a passionate home crowd. The 21-year-old will be buoyed by the energy of her compatriots and is poised to make a serious run at the podium. At tantalizing odds of +410, Picklum represents excellent value for punters looking to back a rising star with the skills to go all the way.

It’s hard to fathom Johanne Defay (+891) as a true outsider, but the oddsmakers seem to have a short memory. Let’s not forget, the powerful Reunion Island native opened the 2024 season with a dominant victory in Portugal and looked destined for the yellow jersey before being pipped by Caitlin Simmers in a final for the ages at Bells Beach. Defay’s complete game makes her a threat in any conditions – from hefty barrels to sizable open-face canvases. If Main Break offers up a smorgasbord of rippable walls, don’t be surprised to see Defay’s name rocketing up the leaderboard. Consider a serious wager on the World No. 2 making a deep run at a venue that suits her down to the ground.

When searching for a true dark horse, Brisa Hennessy (+2028) fits the bill to a tee. The well-rounded Costa Rican has been one of the breakout stars of the 2024 CT season, reaching the semifinals at a staggering three of the first four stops. Hennessy may not have the Main Break reps of some of her more seasoned competitors, but her rapid ascent is proof that she’s more than capable of solving even the trickiest lineup puzzles. Sitting pretty at World No. 6, the 24-year-old will be supremely motivated to silence any remaining doubters and announce herself as a bona fide title contender. With her undeniable talent and soaring confidence, Hennessy has all the ingredients to serve up the upset of the event at eye-popping odds of +2028.

Expert Pick for Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024 – Women’s Division

Caitlin Simmers is our pick to continue her fairytale run with a third victory in five events this season. The West Oz crowd will be solidly behind local favorites Tyler Wright and Molly Picklum, but we believe Simmers has the steely determination and elite talent to outlast the field at Main Break. Back the young Californian to further extend her lead atop the WSL rankings.

2024 WSL Futures Update – Women’s Division

Surfer

Champion

Payout on $20

Top 5

Payout on $20

Caitlin Simmers

+148

$49.60

-19,900

$20.10

Johanne Defay

+368

$93.60

-19,900

$20.10

Caroline Marks

+393

$98.60

-454

$24.41

Molly Picklum

+429

$105.80

-1239

$21.61

Tyler Wright

+1076

$235.20

-110

$38.18

Bettylou Sakura Johnson

+3301

$680.20

+108

$41.60

Brisa Hennessy

+6992

$1418.40

+432

$106.40


The 2024 Women’s World Title race has been shaken up after Caitlin Simmers‘ thrilling victory at the Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach. Simmers’ championship odds have shortened from +595 to +148, making her the clear favorite. Pre-event favorite Molly Picklum saw her odds drop from +221 to +429 after a Round of 16 elimination, while former champions Tyler Wright (+1076) and Carissa Moore (withdrawn) have seen their title chances diminish.

Johanne Defay (+368) and Caroline Marks (+393) are now leading the chasing pack, with rising stars Bettylou Sakura Johnson (+3301) and Brisa Hennessy (+6992) showing promise. As the Tour heads to Margaret River, the top women will need to prove themselves at one of the world’s most challenging waves. The stage is set for a thrilling battle for the 2024 Women’s World Title, with Simmers looking to back up her Bells Beach triumph and establish herself as the surfer to beat.

Where to Bet on the Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024

Expect no shortage of drama in Western Australia as the world’s best surfers fight to keep their CT dreams alive heading into the Mid-season Cut. If you’re looking to get in on the action, NXTbets is here to elevate your betting experience with exclusive offers from our partnered sportsbooks. Dive into our detailed analyses and expert tips with the WSL Championship Tour Betting Guide, tailored to arm you with all the insights needed for informed betting decisions.

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