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Best Bets: 2025 Tour de France Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: 2025 Tour de France Pre-Event Odds Analysis

The world’s premier cycling race is back and celebrating its 112th birthday, starting in Lille and terminating on the iconic Champs-Élysées. Defending Champion, Tadej Pogačar, has the backing of the bettors in the 2025 Tour de France pre-event odds after triumphing in the Critérium du Dauphiné last month. Besides the battle for the yellow jersey, the race brings with it competition for the King of the Mountains, points classification, team classification, and podium finishes. Let’s take a look at the lines.

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Schedule and How to Watch Tour de France

Day one of the 2025 Tour de France takes off and culminates in the Lille Metropole on Saturday, July 5. Peacock brings the spectacle from France to your screens until the race crosses the line in Paris on Sunday, July 27. Coverage begins daily at 6:30 am ET, allowing you to catch some of the action before work. Keep abreast of the latest odds and analysis of the tour here on NXTbets. 

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets & Odds for 2025 Tour de France

Odds for the Event Winner

Slovenia gifted the world Tadej Pogačar, and we’ve relished watching him tear up Tours around the globe. From that introduction, you’d expect he’s a veteran, but no, the three-time Tour de France winner enters this edition still eligible for the white jersey. Pogi lines up in Lille as the defending Champion, and in scintillating form after a victory in the Rhone-Alps a month ago. 

Jonas Vingegaard proved that the Slovenian is human and can be beaten after taking the general classification in 2022 and 2023. The Dane struggled to combat Pogačar’s brilliance last year and had to settle for second place in the recent Critérium Dauphiné. Belgian time-trial Champion Remco Evenepoel is hunting his nation’s first Tour de France title in 49 years, but he’s got a literal mountain climb to threaten the Dane and the Slovenian.

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Rider
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Tadej Pogačar
-250
$28.00
Jonas Vingegaard
+250
$70.00
Remco Evenepoel
+1200
$260.00
Joao Almeida
+2100
$440.00
Florian Lipowitz
+3600
$740.00
Primoz Roglic
+3600
$740.00
Matteo Jorgenson
+5500
$1,120.00
Simon Yates
+10000
$2,020.00
Mattias Skjelmose
+10000
$2,020.00
Enric Mas Nicolau
+10000
$2,020.00
Carlos Rodriguez
+15000
$3,020.00
Felix Gall
+15000
$3,020.00
Ben O'Connor
+15000
$3,020.00
Geraint Thomas
+18000
$3,620.00
Sepp Kuss
+20000
$4,020.00
Lenny Martinez
+23000
$4,620.00
Adam Yates
+23000
$4,620.00
Alexander Vlasov
+23000
$4,620.00
Laurens De Plus
+27000
$5,420.00
Antonio Tiberi
+27000
$5,420.00
Eddie Dunbar
+27000
$5,420.00
Jai Hindley
+27000
$5,420.00
Santiago Buitrago
+27000
$5,420.00
Derek Gee
+27000
$5,420.00
Giulio Ciccone
+37000
$7,420.00
Lennert Van Eetvelt
+37000
$7,420.00
Oscar Onley
+37000
$7,420.00
Tao Geoghegan Hart
+37000
$7,420.00
Thymen Arensman
+49000
$9,820.00
Egan Bernal
+49000
$9,820.00
Jay Vine
+49000
$9,820.00
David Gaudu
+49000
$9,820.00
Ben Healy
+49000
$9,820.00
Daniel Martinez
+49000
$9,820.00
Michael Storer
+49000
$9,820.00
Remaining Riders
+50000
$10,020.00
Expert Pick

Three-time Champion Tadej Pogačar is looking like the rider to beat coming into the Grand Tour. He’s fresh off a win in South-Eastern France, where he toppled his closest challenger, Vingegaard. Pogi carries short odds into this edition at -250, offering a potential payout of $28.00 if you wager $20.

Stage 1 Winner Odds

The race is on for the first yellow jersey of the 2025 Tour de France, and Tim Merlier and Jonathan Milan are the frontrunners. Merlier ranks as the most successful sprinter in the field this season, collecting a double stage win in the Paris-Nice back in March. His results are impressive, but he lacks support in the lead-out department with Bert Van Lerberghe as his sole assistant.

The situation is different for Jonathan Milan, who operates with a full lead-out team that can allow him to dictate the script for the first stage. Regaining green jersey holder Biniam Girmay is back for more glory in 2025. The Eritrean has yet to win this year, but has remained in the mix in numerous races. His best return was second in the points in the Boucles de la Mayenne.

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Rider
Stage 1 Win
Payout on $20
Tim Merlier
+135
$47.00
Jonathan Milan
+185
$57.00
Jasper Philipsen
+440
$108.00
Jordi Meeus
+1600
$340.00
Biniam Girmay
+2300
$480.00
Wout Van Aert
+2500
$520.00
Dylan Groenewegen
+3400
$700.00
Danny van Poppel
+3400
$700.00
Soren Waerenskjold
+3400
$700.00
Mathieu Van Der Poel
+3400
$700.00
Tobias Lund Andresen
+7000
$1,420.00
Arnaud De Lie
+7000
$1,420.00

Odds for a Stage Win

Tour favorite Pogačar is heavily favored to take top honors on at least one stage this year. He managed the feat six times in the 2024 edition, but his odds are too short to warrant a look. Instead, Wout van Aert and Mathieu Van Der Poel offer more attractive odds and stand a real, solid chance of securing a stage victory early on in the tour. Day two plays into their hands with three short, steep climbs in the closing miles. Double Champion Jonas Vingegaard is fairly priced at -160 for a stage win, a feat he achieved once in 2024, en route to a runner-up finish.

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Rider
Stage Win Odds
Payout on $20
Tadej Pogačar
-800
$22.50
Tim Merlier
-380
$25.26
Jonathan Milan
-380
$25.26
Mathieu Van Der Poel
-300
$26.67
Remco Evenepoel
-250
$28.00
Jasper Philipsen
-185
$30.81
Thibau Nys
-160
$32.50
Jonas Vingegaard
-160
$32.50
Lenny Martinez
-130
$35.38
Wout van Aert
-130
$35.38
Romain Gregoire
+105
$41.00
Axel Laurance
+120
$44.00

Podium Odds

Besides the overwhelming flow of capital for the top three favorites, João Almeida catches our attention. The Portuguese rider thrived in the earlier stages of the season, claiming the yellow jersey in the Tour de Suisse, Tour de Basque Country, and Tour de Romandie. His biggest test of the year came in the Paris-Nice race, where he finished sixth overall and won the fourth stage.

Another Slovenian, Primoz Roglic, can’t be written off, despite starting fresh off an injury sustained during the Giro d’Italia. He finished runner-up to “Pogi” in 2020 and is running out of time to secure the Tour de France title that he and cycling fans expected him to.

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Rider
Podium Finish
Payout on $20
Tadej Pogačar
-550
$23.64
Jonas Vingegaard
-390
$25.13
Remco Evenepoel
+100
$40.00
Joao Almeida
+250
$70.00
Primoz Roglic
+270
$74.00
Florian Lipowitz
+440
$108.00
Matteo Jorgenson
+1100
$240.00
Enric Mas Nicolau
+1200
$260.00
Mattias Skjelmose
+1600
$340.00
Ben O'Connor
+1600
$340.00
Felix Gall
+1600
$340.00
Carlos Rodriguez
+1600
$340.00

Top 10 Odds

German youngster Florian Lipowitz has impressed over the past 12 months, with top-five and 10 returns in some major races. It started late last year when he ended the Vuelta a España in sixth. He then backed it up by finishing runner-up in this year’s Paris-Nice and third in the Critérium du Dauphiné, taking the young rider classification in both races.

Another young rider, Carlos Rodriguez, has consistently proved his ability to compete on the big stage in recent years with consecutive Tour de France top 10s. The Spaniard starts after a ninth-place result in southeastern France last month, and is poised for a hat trick of tour top 10s.

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Rider
Top 10 Odds
Payout on $20
Tadej Pogačar
-900
$22.22
Jonas Vingegaard
-650
$23.08
Joao Almeida
-420
$24.76
Florian Lipowitz
-370
$25.41
Remco Evenepoel
-370
$25.41
Primoz Roglic
-240
$28.33
Carlos Rodriguez
-195
$30.26
Matteo Jorgenson
-155
$32.90
Felix Gall
-155
$32.90
Ben O'Connor
-155
$32.90
Santiago Buitrago
-155
$32.90
Enric Mas Nicolau
-155
$32.90

King of the Mountains

Tadej Pogačar takes the favorite tag to secure the polka dot jersey, but it’ll be a consolation prize for the triple Champion. His biggest rival in this department would’ve been Richard Carapaz, who donned the shirt in 2024. The Ecuadorian withdrew in the build-up to the race with a stomach bug, now leaving Felix Gall to challenge Pogi.

Gall will be frothing for the final stages of the tour, which bring treacherous terrain, but the Austrian will have to go stage hunting like he’s never done before to secure the polka dot. Watch out for Jonas Vingegaard, who will push Pogačar all the way, and is one of the best climbers in the field, besides his Slovenian rival.

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Rider
KOM Odds
Payout on $20
Tadej Pogačar
+175
$55.00
Jonas Vingegaard
+600
$140.00
Lenny Martinez
+850
$190.00
Michael Storer
+1600
$340.00
Felix Gall
+2000
$420.00
Julian Alaphilippe
+2300
$480.00
Ben Healy
+2500
$520.00
Alex Baudin
+2500
$520.00
Neilson Powless
+2500
$520.00
Michael Woods
+3100
$640.00
Einer Rubio
+3400
$700.00
Wout Van Aert
+3400
$700.00

Green Jersey Odds

Tim Merlier is undoubtedly the in-form sprinter coming into the tour, but his shortage of lead-out men could cost him in the points classification. Jonathan Milan moves into the favorite position, thanks to his train of lead-out cyclists who can control the sprint stages, and bring their Lidl–Trek teammate home in first. The 2023 Green Jersey victor, Jasper Philipsen, lines up seeking to snatch his shirt back from the current holder, Girmay. Mathieu Van Der Poel is attractively priced for the green jersey title, after winning the Paris-Roubaix and Milan-San Remo earlier in the season.

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Rider
Green Jersey Odds
Payout on $20
Jonathan Milan
+250
$70.00
Jasper Philipsen
+480
$116.00
Tadej Pogačar
+550
$130.00
Wout Van Aert
+600
$140.00
Mathieu Van Der Poel
+600
$140.00
Tim Merlier
+600
$140.00
Biniam Girmay
+1000
$220.00
Jordi Meeus
+2900
$600.00
Bryan Coquard
+4500
$920.00
Arnaud De Lie
+7000
$1420.00
Thibau Nys
+7000
$1420.00
Lewis Askey
+10000
$2020.00

Team Classification

Defending Team Classification Champions UAE Team Emirates – XRG and the 2023 winners Team Visma-Lease a Bike line up in Lille as the favorites. The Emirates team is led by triple Champion Pogačar, while Vingegaard heads up the chase at Visma-Lease a Bike. Former Champions Ineos Grenadiers start as the third favorites, but it’s tough to see any other team competing with Emirates – XRG and Visma-Lease a Bike, given the quality in their lineups.

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Team
Team Classification Odds
Payout on $20
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
+125
$45.00
Team Visma-Lease a Bike
+125
$45.00
Ineos Grenadiers
+750
$170.00
Movistar Team
+1000
$220.00
Decathlon Ag2r La Mondiale Team
+2900
$600.00
RedBull-Bora-Hansgrohe
+4500
$920.00
Bahrain Victorious
+4500
$920.00
EF Education-Easy Post
+7000
$1420.00
Arkea B&B Hotels
+10000
$2020.00
Alpecin-Deuceininck
+10000
$2020.00
Uno-X Mobility
+10000
$2020.00
Team Picnic Post NL
+10000
$2020.00

Where to Bet on Tour de France

Bets for the 2025 Tour de France can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbet’s comprehensive Tour de France Betting Guide.

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Offer Score

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Offer Score

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