After nine months, and the completion of the SX and MX series, the SMX World Championship Final is upon us. Jorge Prado enters the ultimate showdown, leading the Championship, while the rookie, Haiden Deegan, starts as the pre-event odds favorite to capture the final round. Hunter Lawrence offers the bettors excellent value for money in all betting markets, but can he gain ground on the Spaniard to hand his family a fourth straight title? Discover the best bets and picks ahead of Saturday in our analysis below.
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Schedule and How to Watch SMX World Championship Finals
The finals of the 2026 SMX Championship descend on Ridgedale, MO, on Saturday, September 26, for an evening of high-adrenaline racing. Racers prepare for action with the opening ceremony at 5:30 pm CDT, before entering race mode at 6:00 pm local time. The event will run later into the evening, when this year’s champ will be decided. Tune into Peacock in the USA to enjoy the last action of the campaign, while international viewers can catch the event live on SMX VideoPass.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Live SMX Odds
Best Bets & Odds for SMX World Championship Final
2026 SMX Championship Futures
It is all to race for in the final round of the 2026 Championship. Jorge Prado arrives at the Thunder Ridge Nature Arena with a 16-point buffer in the standings and is heavily favored to ride away from Missouri with the title. However, it is his to lose, as he only needs to finish third or better to guarantee victory. If the Spaniard finishes fourth, he will earn 54 points, opening the door for four riders to take the series.
Haiden Deegan and Hunter Lawrence (2026 MX Champion) trail by 16 points into the final, while Ken Roczen (2026 SX Champion) faces an 18-point deficit. Cooper Webb has an outside chance, but needs to make up 20 points on the current leader. One of these racers must enter Victory Lane to bag the maximum 75 points and hope Prado stutters for them to be crowned. Whatever the outcome, there will be a new 450SMX World Champion, as the three-time reigning champ, Jett Lawrence, has missed the Playoffs and Finals.
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Rider
Futures Odds
Payout on $20
Jorge Prado
-303
$26.60
Haiden Deegan
+365
$93.00
Hunter Lawrence
+417
$103.40
Ken Roczen
+1000
$220.00
Cooper Webb
+3200
$660.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+36937
$7,407.40
Garrett Marchbanks
+36937
$7,407.40
R.J. Hampshire
+36937
$7,407.40
Aaron Plessinger
+38362
$7,692.40
Eli Tomac
+38362
$7,692.40
Jordon Smith
+38362
$7,692.40
Malcolm Stewart
+38362
$7,692.40
Winning Qualifier Odds
We only have one SMX Playoffs qualifying run to draw from this season, as the opening round was interrupted due to inclement weather. The rookie, Haiden Deegan, is tied with Hunter Lawrence to top the winning qualifier market, despite the Australian beating the clock more times in 2026. Lawrence recorded three in Supercross, three in Motocross, and topped the field last weekend. However, Deegan only bagged two in the MX series, after racing in the 250 class in the SX Championship.
Jorge Prado headed the combined qualifying list twice in the Supercross series in the winter and spring, and once in the Motocross Championship, taking his total to three. Eli Tomac boasts seven quickest qualifying runs in 2026, all of which came in the SX leg of the campaign. The fourth favorite, Ken Roczen, caps off the best qualifying hopefuls after he registered two in SX and sat out the MX Championship.
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Rider
Winning Qualifier Odds
Payout on $20
Haiden Deegan
+250
$70.00
Hunter Lawrence
+250
$70.00
Jorge Prado
+391
$98.20
Ken Roczen
+400
$100.00
Eli Tomac
+1000
$220.00
Cooper Webb
+1327
$285.40
R.J. Hampshire
+1584
$336.80
Jason Anderson
+1888
$397.60
Malcolm Stewart
+2058
$431.60
Justin Hill
+2358
$491.60
Garrett Marchbanks
+2393
$498.60
Dylan Ferrandis
+4218
$863.60
Joey Savatgy
+4439
$907.80
Justin Barcia
+8752
$1,770.40
Aaron Plessinger
+12546
$2,529.20
Christian Craig
+12871
$2,594.20
Jordon Smith
+12871
$2,594.20
Benny Bloss
+14206
$2,861.20
Colt Nichols
+14206
$2,861.20
Cornelius Tøndel
+14206
$2,861.20
Freddie Noren
+14206
$2,861.20
Grant Harlan
+14206
$2,861.20
Jeremy Hand
+14206
$2,861.20
Mikkel Haarup
+14206
$2,861.20
Mitchell Harrison
+14206
$2,861.20
Shane McElrath
+14206
$2,861.20
Valentin Guillod
+14206
$2,861.20
Vince Friese
+14206
$2,861.20
Moto #1 Holeshot Odds
The SMX Championship leader starts the final as the favorite for a holeshot, with two to his name in the last two rounds. In total, Jorge Prado has reached the first corner ahead of the field 11 times in 2026, with 54.5% of those coming in the SX leg of the season. Surprisingly, Haiden Deegan is the second favorite, despite recording only four holeshots between the MX and the first two rounds of the SMX Playoffs. That is great news for bettors who are provided bang for buck in our next candidate.
Hunter Lawrence is cheap at +422, after earning more holeshots than any other rider on the start list in 2026. The Aussie has claimed the holeshot award 17 times across all formats this year, with the latest being last week out west. Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen complete the list of our best holeshotters with two apiece this term. Both these riders beat their peers into the opening corner in the Supercross Championship, and remain outsiders for a rapid start in the SMX World Championship final.
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Rider
Moto 1 Holeshot Odds
Payout on $20
Jorge Prado
+300
$80.00
Haiden Deegan
+350
$90.00
Hunter Lawrence
+422
$104.40
Eli Tomac
+493
$118.60
Ken Roczen
+500
$120.00
Cooper Webb
+1166
$253.20
Malcolm Stewart
+1436
$307.20
R.J. Hampshire
+1945
$409.00
Justin Hill
+2046
$429.20
Garrett Marchbanks
+2833
$586.60
Joey Savatgy
+3336
$687.20
Aaron Plessinger
+3348
$689.60
Dylan Ferrandis
+3446
$709.20
Justin Barcia
+3982
$816.40
Jordon Smith
+8233
$1,666.60
Christian Craig
+8303
$1,680.60
Jason Anderson
+11264
$2,272.80
Benny Bloss
+12721
$2,564.20
Cornelius Tøndel
+12721
$2,564.20
Mitchell Harrison
+12721
$2,564.20
Colt Nichols
+12887
$2,597.40
Freddie Noren
+12887
$2,597.40
Grant Harlan
+12887
$2,597.40
Jeremy Hand
+12887
$2,597.40
Mikkel Haarup
+12887
$2,597.40
Shane McElrath
+12887
$2,597.40
Valentin Guillod
+12887
$2,597.40
Vince Friese
+12887
$2,597.40
Moto #1 Winner
Californian Haiden Deegan is the golden boy of the markets right now, despite only winning two races this year. He got off to a flier in round one of the playoffs, winning both Moto #1 and Moto #2. However, that was under testing conditions, where rain interrupted qualifying, and event favorite, the older Lawrence brother, faltered. The rookie failed to win in round two, settling for third in both races. Ken Roczen has entered Victory Lane after eight starts in 2026; seven of those were in the Supercross leg of the proceedings. He backed it up last weekend by clinching Moto #1 in the playoff leg.
Hunter Lawrence arrives in Missouri offering superb bang for buck. The Honda rider has racked up 20 race wins this year, more than anyone on the grid, but it seems he still needs to prove himself to bettors. He prevailed in 12 Moto #1 and Moto #2 races in MX, seven in SX, and claimed Moto #2 in the second playoff round. Eli Tomac lines up in the final round with five triumphs under the bike, all of which were secured during the Supercross season.
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Rider
Moto 1 Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Haiden Deegan
+175
$55.00
Hunter Lawrence
+250
$70.00
Ken Roczen
+275
$75.00
Jorge Prado
+325
$85.00
Eli Tomac
+1000
$220.00
Cooper Webb
+2304
$480.80
Garrett Marchbanks
+2733
$566.60
R.J. Hampshire
+4708
$961.60
Aaron Plessinger
+4951
$1,010.20
Dylan Ferrandis
+5163
$1,052.60
Malcolm Stewart
+5748
$1,169.60
Joey Savatgy
+7837
$1,587.40
Justin Hill
+10209
$2,061.80
Justin Barcia
+12400
$2,500.00
Christian Craig
+17444
$3,508.80
Jason Anderson
+17444
$3,508.80
Jordon Smith
+17444
$3,508.80
Mikkel Haarup
+18082
$3,636.40
Benny Bloss
+18419
$3,703.80
Jeremy Hand
+18419
$3,703.80
Colt Nichols
+19131
$3,846.20
Freddie Noren
+19508
$3,921.60
Shane McElrath
+19508
$3,921.60
Valentin Guillod
+19508
$3,921.60
Vince Friese
+19508
$3,921.60
Grant Harlan
+19900
$4,000.00
Mitchell Harrison
+19900
$4,000.00
Cornelius Tøndel
+20308
$4,081.60
Odds for Event Winner W/O Hunter or Deegan
Without the favorites, Haiden Deegan and Hunter Lawrence in play, there is value to be had. We start with Jorge Prado, who leads this market at +111 and averages 1.8 in his last five events across all formats. He claimed top honors in two of those events and has finished on the podium in every round since Unadilla in the middle of August. The Spaniard’s nearest rival in this market is Ken Roczen, who averaged 2.5 in the opening two playoff rounds and 3.28 across the Supercross campaign.
Next up, Cooper Webb just missed the top three in both playoff events, but was a two-time winner in the SX series earlier in the year. Eli Tomac closes out the potential winners of this market, carrying five wins from SX with him. He suffered a spate of injuries across the year and has not looked the same since returning to action late in the MX Championship. But the KTM rider knows how to get the job done on the big stage, after racking up three podiums in the playoffs and the final in 2025.
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Rider
Odds W/O Hunter or Deegan
Payout on $20
Jorge Prado
+111
$42.20
Ken Roczen
+200
$60.00
Cooper Webb
+839
$187.80
Eli Tomac
+995
$219.00
Garrett Marchbanks
+1345
$289.00
Aaron Plessinger
+1703
$360.60
R.J. Hampshire
+2090
$438.00
Jason Anderson
+2162
$452.40
Dylan Ferrandis
+2579
$535.80
Malcolm Stewart
+2899
$599.80
Joey Savatgy
+3036
$627.20
Christian Craig
+8016
$1,623.20
Jordon Smith
+8016
$1,623.20
Justin Barcia
+8016
$1,623.20
Justin Hill
+8016
$1,623.20
Benny Bloss
+8523
$1,724.60
Colt Nichols
+8523
$1,724.60
Cornelius Tøndel
+8523
$1,724.60
Freddie Noren
+8523
$1,724.60
Grant Harlan
+8523
$1,724.60
Jeremy Hand
+8523
$1,724.60
Mikkel Haarup
+8523
$1,724.60
Mitchell Harrison
+8523
$1,724.60
Shane McElrath
+8523
$1,724.60
Valentin Guillod
+8523
$1,724.60
Vince Friese
+8523
$1,724.60
Odds for Event Winner
Young Haiden Deegan has only won one event on a 450 this year, which came two weeks ago in the opening playoff round. Despite that, he starts as the favorite to win the final, averaging 4.0 in his previous five appearances in the MX and SMX playoff legs. Hunter Lawrence is one to watch at +201, carrying 11 to his name in 2026. He is the winningest rider on the grid, but bettors lost faith in him after a hiccup in inclement weather in the opening playoff round. He bounced back last weekend to finish second overall and won Moto #2 in California.
The 2026 450SX Champion, Ken Roczen, enters the finale as the third favorite, after two tidy playoff rounds. He has averaged 2.5 across the playoffs, but has remained winless in the business end of the Championship. The German-American boasts five victories this term, all of which came in the Supercross series. Jorge Prado is a value pick, despite leading the SMX race. The Spaniard has won two of his last three appearances across all formats at an average of 1.8, and is cheap considering his current form.
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Rider
Event Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Haiden Deegan
+133
$46.60
Hunter Lawrence
+201
$60.20
Ken Roczen
+300
$80.00
Jorge Prado
+409
$101.80
Eli Tomac
+1200
$260.00
Cooper Webb
+2518
$523.60
Garrett Marchbanks
+3916
$803.20
Aaron Plessinger
+4925
$1,005.00
R.J. Hampshire
+5998
$1,219.60
Jason Anderson
+6229
$1,265.80
Dylan Ferrandis
+7363
$1,492.60
Malcolm Stewart
+8233
$1,666.60
Joey Savatgy
+8596
$1,739.20
Christian Craig
+22627
$4,545.40
Jordon Smith
+22627
$4,545.40
Justin Barcia
+22627
$4,545.40
Justin Hill
+22627
$4,545.40
Colt Nichols
+23710
$4,762.00
Cornelius Tøndel
+23710
$4,762.00
Grant Harlan
+23710
$4,762.00
Jeremy Hand
+23710
$4,762.00
Mitchell Harrison
+23710
$4,762.00
Shane McElrath
+23710
$4,762.00
Benny Bloss
+24290
$4,878.00
Freddie Noren
+24290
$4,878.00
Mikkel Haarup
+24290
$4,878.00
Valentin Guillod
+24290
$4,878.00
Vince Friese
+24290
$4,878.00
Expert Pick
Hunter Lawrence wins the battle for our expert pick in a highly competitive finals weekend. The Australian has lost the confidence of the markets after his stumble in the first playoff leg, but we cannot ignore his consistency this year. He averaged 3.53 across all Supercross rounds, and lowered that in the MX leg to an impressive 2.27. His SMX playoff average leaves a lot to be desired at 8.5, but that was brought down by his 15th-place finish in round 1 of the playoffs. He starts at +201, and a $20.00 bet stands to pay out $60.20.
Odds for a Podium
Jorge Prado continues to add value to bettors in the podium market, lining up at +122. The KTM rider has bagged a top-three finish in his past five consecutive appearances, accounting for 50% of his rostrum finishes in 2026. Ken Roczen has started the playoffs and finished strong, averaging 2.5 in the opening rounds. The German-American’s results build on his 3.24 average achieved in the Supercross series. He enters finals weekend with a 90% podium success rate in his past 10 SX and SMX outings.
Eli Tomac has struggled to regain the form we know he is capable of. The Coloradan surged to nine top-threes in the SX leg of the series, but has not claimed a rostrum since the stop in his home state back in the spring. Sticking with podium outsiders, Cooper Webb just missed the rostrum in the first two playoff rounds and arrives at Thunder Ridge Nature Arena with a 4.5 finishing average in the business end of the Championship. The Yamaha rider has one podium to his name in his previous three starts and has registered a total of nine top-threes across all events in 2026.
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Rider
Podium Odds
Payout on $20
Haiden Deegan
-500
$24.00
Hunter Lawrence
-149
$33.42
Ken Roczen
-130
$35.38
Jorge Prado
+122
$44.40
Eli Tomac
+240
$68.00
Cooper Webb
+269
$73.80
Aaron Plessinger
+658
$151.60
Jason Anderson
+862
$192.40
Dylan Ferrandis
+944
$208.80
Malcolm Stewart
+1068
$233.60
Garrett Marchbanks
+1147
$249.40
R.J. Hampshire
+1158
$251.60
Joey Savatgy
+1293
$278.60
Justin Barcia
+2258
$471.60
Justin Hill
+2833
$586.60
Cornelius Tøndel
+7774
$1,574.80
Freddie Noren
+7774
$1,574.80
Mitchell Harrison
+7774
$1,574.80
Valentin Guillod
+7774
$1,574.80
Benny Bloss
+7837
$1,587.40
Jeremy Hand
+7837
$1,587.40
Mikkel Haarup
+7837
$1,587.40
Christian Craig
+7900
$1,600.00
Colt Nichols
+7900
$1,600.00
Grant Harlan
+7900
$1,600.00
Jordon Smith
+7900
$1,600.00
Shane McElrath
+7900
$1,600.00
Vince Friese
+7900
$1,600.00
Top 5 Odds
The odds are largely short for the top five contenders heading into the final, but some value is available in Cooper Webb at -115. He has carded top-five finishes in both playoff legs, taking his total tally to 11 this campaign. R.J. Hampshire is an underdog to finish in the first five positions, after narrowly missing out last weekend in Carson. The Husqvarna rider starts the final round with a 40% top-five return in his previous 10 appearances across all formats.
Dylan Ferrandis lines up in Missouri with a playoffs best return of six, which he achieved in the opening round. He struggled last time out, settling for 12th, but has found himself inside the top five twice this year. On the shorter end of the odds sheet we find Eli Tomac, who, despite struggling with injury, has bagged a top five once in his previous three appearances. The KTM rider has a far stronger Supercross campaign before injuries set in, but he still boasts a satisfactory record of 12 top-fives across SX, MX and SMX rounds.
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Rider
Top 5 Odds
Payout on $20
Haiden Deegan
-1000
$22.00
Hunter Lawrence
-300
$26.67
Ken Roczen
-300
$26.67
Jorge Prado
-200
$30.00
Eli Tomac
-130
$35.38
Cooper Webb
-115
$37.39
Aaron Plessinger
+241
$68.20
Jason Anderson
+349
$89.80
R.J. Hampshire
+380
$96.00
Malcolm Stewart
+385
$97.00
Dylan Ferrandis
+391
$98.20
Joey Savatgy
+454
$110.80
Garrett Marchbanks
+487
$117.40
Justin Barcia
+763
$172.60
Justin Hill
+864
$192.80
Christian Craig
+2315
$483.00
Benny Bloss
+5164
$1,052.80
Colt Nichols
+5164
$1,052.80
Cornelius Tøndel
+5164
$1,052.80
Freddie Noren
+5164
$1,052.80
Grant Harlan
+5164
$1,052.80
Jeremy Hand
+5164
$1,052.80
Jordon Smith
+5164
$1,052.80
Mikkel Haarup
+5164
$1,052.80
Mitchell Harrison
+5164
$1,052.80
Shane McElrath
+5164
$1,052.80
Valentin Guillod
+5164
$1,052.80
Vince Friese
+5164
$1,052.80
Winning Manufacturer Odds
Courtesy of Haiden Deegan, Yamaha starts the final round as the favorites to claim the winning manufacturer battle. However, despite the bettors’ confidence, Yamaha has only won two rounds across all formats this season. The first one came in the opening Triple Crown leg in Houston thanks to Cooper Webb, and Deegan delivered their second in round one of the playoffs.
The second favorite, Honda, has entered Victory Lane 15 times this season. Hunter Lawrence has produced 11 of those, while his brother Jett handed the team four triumphs. The biggest concern for the Californian team is that none of those victories happened during the playoffs. KTM is Honda’s nearest rival this year with six victories; Eli Tomac handed them four in the SX series, while Jorge Prado produced the remaining two in his past three events. Suzuki enters the finals with five triumphs in 2026, and all of those were thanks to Ken Roczen during his Supercross title run earlier in the year.
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Manufacturer
Winning Manufacturer Odds
Payout on $20
Yamaha
+108
$41.60
Honda
+184
$56.80
KTM
+295
$79.00
Suzuki
+782
$176.40
Kawasaki
+2582
$536.40
Husqvarna
+3431
$706.20
Ducati
+5518
$1,123.60
Triumph
+11562
$2,332.40
Beta
+11926
$2,405.20
H2H Odds
The two chasers in the Championship race, Hunter Lawrence and Haiden Deegan, battle it out in the pick of our matchups. Lawrence is the underdog for this challenge at +113, but he’s gotten the better of Deegan in 83.3% of their previous 13 encounters. The rookie only finished ahead of the Australian at Unadilla and in the first playoff round; besides that, it’s been all Lawrence. Deegan only has one win in those 13 appearances, while Lawrence has entered Victory Lane in six of those rounds.
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Matchup
Moneyline
Payout on $20
Haiden Deegan
-150
$33.33
Hunter Lawrence
+113
$42.60
Jorge Prado
-109
$38.35
Ken Roczen
-121
$36.53
Cooper Webb
+105
$41.00
Eli Tomac
-140
$34.29
Aaron Plessinger
-149
$33.42
R.J. Hampshire
+112
$42.40
DFS Finishing Positions
Moto #1
Ken Roczen and Jorge Prado are the two riders worth considering for Moto #1 finishing positions, as their projected positions exceed their current finishing average. Roczen is forecast to cross the line better than fourth, but he’s averaged 2.25 in the opening four races of the SMX playoffs, adding to his 3.26 average achieved across the Supercross campaign. Prado is looking as good, starting the finale with a 2.17 average in his last six races across all formats.
Rider
Projected Position
Haiden Deegan
1.5
Hunter Lawrence
2.5
Ken Roczen
3.5
Jorge Prado
3.5
Eli Tomac
5.5
Cooper Webb
5.5
Aaron Plessinger
8.5
Dylan Ferrandis
9.5
Malcolm Stewart
9.5
R.J. Hampshire
9.5
Overall Event Finshing Position
Looking ahead to the event finishing positions, Jorge Prado and Ken Roczen again stand out as the riders to pick. The Championship leader is averaging 1.8 across his last five rounds, including two victories, as well as runner-up finishes and a third-place finish. Roczen is tougher to judge because he sat out the MX legs, but in his last five starts across SX and SMX, he’s averaged 2.6, better than the forecasted 3.5 finishing position for the final round.
Rider
Projected Position
Haiden Deegan
1.5
Hunter Lawrence
2.5
Ken Roczen
3.5
Jorge Prado
3.5
Eli Tomac
5.5
Cooper Webb
5.5
Aaron Plessinger
8.5
Dylan Ferrandis
9.5
Malcolm Stewart
9.5
R.J. Hampshire
9.5
Where to Bet on SMX World Championship Final
Bets for the SMX World Championship Final at Thunder Ridge Nature Arena can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbets’ comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide.
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Best Bets: 2026 SMX World Championship Final Pre-Event Odds Analysis
After nine months, and the completion of the SX and MX series, the SMX World Championship Final is upon us. Jorge Prado enters the ultimate showdown, leading the Championship, while the rookie, Haiden Deegan, starts as the pre-event odds favorite to capture the final round. Hunter Lawrence offers the bettors excellent value for money in all betting markets, but can he gain ground on the Spaniard to hand his family a fourth straight title? Discover the best bets and picks ahead of Saturday in our analysis below.
Bets for the SMX World Championship Final can be placed with our partner sportsbooks.
In addition to traditional sports betting, the Super Motocross Championship offers a Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) option for the series, available exclusively on Underdog. DFS offers a new way for fans to engage with the sport, allowing them to make real money picks in a thrilling Pick’Em format. This expanding category within legal sports wagering enables Motocross enthusiasts in 30 states, including California, Utah, and Texas, where traditional sports betting is currently prohibited, to participate in the action.
Schedule and How to Watch SMX World Championship Finals
The finals of the 2026 SMX Championship descend on Ridgedale, MO, on Saturday, September 26, for an evening of high-adrenaline racing. Racers prepare for action with the opening ceremony at 5:30 pm CDT, before entering race mode at 6:00 pm local time. The event will run later into the evening, when this year’s champ will be decided. Tune into Peacock in the USA to enjoy the last action of the campaign, while international viewers can catch the event live on SMX Video Pass.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Live SMX Odds
Best Bets & Odds for SMX World Championship Final
2026 SMX Championship Futures
It is all to race for in the final round of the 2026 Championship. Jorge Prado arrives at the Thunder Ridge Nature Arena with a 16-point buffer in the standings and is heavily favored to ride away from Missouri with the title. However, it is his to lose, as he only needs to finish third or better to guarantee victory. If the Spaniard finishes fourth, he will earn 54 points, opening the door for four riders to take the series.
Haiden Deegan and Hunter Lawrence (2026 MX Champion) trail by 16 points into the final, while Ken Roczen (2026 SX Champion) faces an 18-point deficit. Cooper Webb has an outside chance, but needs to make up 20 points on the current leader. One of these racers must enter Victory Lane to bag the maximum 75 points and hope Prado stutters for them to be crowned. Whatever the outcome, there will be a new 450SMX World Champion, as the three-time reigning champ, Jett Lawrence, has missed the Playoffs and Finals.
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Winning Qualifier Odds
We only have one SMX Playoffs qualifying run to draw from this season, as the opening round was interrupted due to inclement weather. The rookie, Haiden Deegan, is tied with Hunter Lawrence to top the winning qualifier market, despite the Australian beating the clock more times in 2026. Lawrence recorded three in Supercross, three in Motocross, and topped the field last weekend. However, Deegan only bagged two in the MX series, after racing in the 250 class in the SX Championship.
Jorge Prado headed the combined qualifying list twice in the Supercross series in the winter and spring, and once in the Motocross Championship, taking his total to three. Eli Tomac boasts seven quickest qualifying runs in 2026, all of which came in the SX leg of the campaign. The fourth favorite, Ken Roczen, caps off the best qualifying hopefuls after he registered two in SX and sat out the MX Championship.
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Moto #1 Holeshot Odds
The SMX Championship leader starts the final as the favorite for a holeshot, with two to his name in the last two rounds. In total, Jorge Prado has reached the first corner ahead of the field 11 times in 2026, with 54.5% of those coming in the SX leg of the season. Surprisingly, Haiden Deegan is the second favorite, despite recording only four holeshots between the MX and the first two rounds of the SMX Playoffs. That is great news for bettors who are provided bang for buck in our next candidate.
Hunter Lawrence is cheap at +422, after earning more holeshots than any other rider on the start list in 2026. The Aussie has claimed the holeshot award 17 times across all formats this year, with the latest being last week out west. Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen complete the list of our best holeshotters with two apiece this term. Both these riders beat their peers into the opening corner in the Supercross Championship, and remain outsiders for a rapid start in the SMX World Championship final.
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Moto #1 Winner
Californian Haiden Deegan is the golden boy of the markets right now, despite only winning two races this year. He got off to a flier in round one of the playoffs, winning both Moto #1 and Moto #2. However, that was under testing conditions, where rain interrupted qualifying, and event favorite, the older Lawrence brother, faltered. The rookie failed to win in round two, settling for third in both races. Ken Roczen has entered Victory Lane after eight starts in 2026; seven of those were in the Supercross leg of the proceedings. He backed it up last weekend by clinching Moto #1 in the playoff leg.
Hunter Lawrence arrives in Missouri offering superb bang for buck. The Honda rider has racked up 20 race wins this year, more than anyone on the grid, but it seems he still needs to prove himself to bettors. He prevailed in 12 Moto #1 and Moto #2 races in MX, seven in SX, and claimed Moto #2 in the second playoff round. Eli Tomac lines up in the final round with five triumphs under the bike, all of which were secured during the Supercross season.
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Odds for Event Winner W/O Hunter or Deegan
Without the favorites, Haiden Deegan and Hunter Lawrence in play, there is value to be had. We start with Jorge Prado, who leads this market at +111 and averages 1.8 in his last five events across all formats. He claimed top honors in two of those events and has finished on the podium in every round since Unadilla in the middle of August. The Spaniard’s nearest rival in this market is Ken Roczen, who averaged 2.5 in the opening two playoff rounds and 3.28 across the Supercross campaign.
Next up, Cooper Webb just missed the top three in both playoff events, but was a two-time winner in the SX series earlier in the year. Eli Tomac closes out the potential winners of this market, carrying five wins from SX with him. He suffered a spate of injuries across the year and has not looked the same since returning to action late in the MX Championship. But the KTM rider knows how to get the job done on the big stage, after racking up three podiums in the playoffs and the final in 2025.
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Odds for Event Winner
Young Haiden Deegan has only won one event on a 450 this year, which came two weeks ago in the opening playoff round. Despite that, he starts as the favorite to win the final, averaging 4.0 in his previous five appearances in the MX and SMX playoff legs. Hunter Lawrence is one to watch at +201, carrying 11 to his name in 2026. He is the winningest rider on the grid, but bettors lost faith in him after a hiccup in inclement weather in the opening playoff round. He bounced back last weekend to finish second overall and won Moto #2 in California.
The 2026 450SX Champion, Ken Roczen, enters the finale as the third favorite, after two tidy playoff rounds. He has averaged 2.5 across the playoffs, but has remained winless in the business end of the Championship. The German-American boasts five victories this term, all of which came in the Supercross series. Jorge Prado is a value pick, despite leading the SMX race. The Spaniard has won two of his last three appearances across all formats at an average of 1.8, and is cheap considering his current form.
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Expert Pick
Hunter Lawrence wins the battle for our expert pick in a highly competitive finals weekend. The Australian has lost the confidence of the markets after his stumble in the first playoff leg, but we cannot ignore his consistency this year. He averaged 3.53 across all Supercross rounds, and lowered that in the MX leg to an impressive 2.27. His SMX playoff average leaves a lot to be desired at 8.5, but that was brought down by his 15th-place finish in round 1 of the playoffs. He starts at +201, and a $20.00 bet stands to pay out $60.20.
Odds for a Podium
Jorge Prado continues to add value to bettors in the podium market, lining up at +122. The KTM rider has bagged a top-three finish in his past five consecutive appearances, accounting for 50% of his rostrum finishes in 2026. Ken Roczen has started the playoffs and finished strong, averaging 2.5 in the opening rounds. The German-American’s results build on his 3.24 average achieved in the Supercross series. He enters finals weekend with a 90% podium success rate in his past 10 SX and SMX outings.
Eli Tomac has struggled to regain the form we know he is capable of. The Coloradan surged to nine top-threes in the SX leg of the series, but has not claimed a rostrum since the stop in his home state back in the spring. Sticking with podium outsiders, Cooper Webb just missed the rostrum in the first two playoff rounds and arrives at Thunder Ridge Nature Arena with a 4.5 finishing average in the business end of the Championship. The Yamaha rider has one podium to his name in his previous three starts and has registered a total of nine top-threes across all events in 2026.
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Top 5 Odds
The odds are largely short for the top five contenders heading into the final, but some value is available in Cooper Webb at -115. He has carded top-five finishes in both playoff legs, taking his total tally to 11 this campaign. R.J. Hampshire is an underdog to finish in the first five positions, after narrowly missing out last weekend in Carson. The Husqvarna rider starts the final round with a 40% top-five return in his previous 10 appearances across all formats.
Dylan Ferrandis lines up in Missouri with a playoffs best return of six, which he achieved in the opening round. He struggled last time out, settling for 12th, but has found himself inside the top five twice this year. On the shorter end of the odds sheet we find Eli Tomac, who, despite struggling with injury, has bagged a top five once in his previous three appearances. The KTM rider has a far stronger Supercross campaign before injuries set in, but he still boasts a satisfactory record of 12 top-fives across SX, MX and SMX rounds.
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Winning Manufacturer Odds
Courtesy of Haiden Deegan, Yamaha starts the final round as the favorites to claim the winning manufacturer battle. However, despite the bettors’ confidence, Yamaha has only won two rounds across all formats this season. The first one came in the opening Triple Crown leg in Houston thanks to Cooper Webb, and Deegan delivered their second in round one of the playoffs.
The second favorite, Honda, has entered Victory Lane 15 times this season. Hunter Lawrence has produced 11 of those, while his brother Jett handed the team four triumphs. The biggest concern for the Californian team is that none of those victories happened during the playoffs. KTM is Honda’s nearest rival this year with six victories; Eli Tomac handed them four in the SX series, while Jorge Prado produced the remaining two in his past three events. Suzuki enters the finals with five triumphs in 2026, and all of those were thanks to Ken Roczen during his Supercross title run earlier in the year.
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H2H Odds
The two chasers in the Championship race, Hunter Lawrence and Haiden Deegan, battle it out in the pick of our matchups. Lawrence is the underdog for this challenge at +113, but he’s gotten the better of Deegan in 83.3% of their previous 13 encounters. The rookie only finished ahead of the Australian at Unadilla and in the first playoff round; besides that, it’s been all Lawrence. Deegan only has one win in those 13 appearances, while Lawrence has entered Victory Lane in six of those rounds.
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DFS Finishing Positions
Moto #1
Ken Roczen and Jorge Prado are the two riders worth considering for Moto #1 finishing positions, as their projected positions exceed their current finishing average. Roczen is forecast to cross the line better than fourth, but he’s averaged 2.25 in the opening four races of the SMX playoffs, adding to his 3.26 average achieved across the Supercross campaign. Prado is looking as good, starting the finale with a 2.17 average in his last six races across all formats.
Overall Event Finshing Position
Looking ahead to the event finishing positions, Jorge Prado and Ken Roczen again stand out as the riders to pick. The Championship leader is averaging 1.8 across his last five rounds, including two victories, as well as runner-up finishes and a third-place finish. Roczen is tougher to judge because he sat out the MX legs, but in his last five starts across SX and SMX, he’s averaged 2.6, better than the forecasted 3.5 finishing position for the final round.
Where to Bet on SMX World Championship Final
Bets for the SMX World Championship Final at Thunder Ridge Nature Arena can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbets’ comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide.
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