Best Bets: BKFC 68 Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Key Matchups

David Oscar (-170) vs. Agi Faulkner (+127) – European Heavyweight Title

The betting line here may undervalue Faulkner’s devastating power and perfect finishing rate. While Oscar brings more experience at 4-1, his grinding style could play directly into Faulkner’s wheelhouse. The size differential is particularly telling – Faulkner’s 234-pound frame dwarfs Oscar’s 204, and he’s shown the ability to maintain his power deep into fights. Oscar’s previous MMA experience (3-4) suggests vulnerability when pressed, and Faulkner’s two first-round knockouts demonstrate he knows how to capitalize on openings. Oscar’s tendency toward gritty, in-your-face fights might actually work against him here, as closing distance against a significantly larger opponent with proven one-shot power could prove catastrophic. The fact that both of Faulkner’s BKFC victories came via first-round KO against solid competition makes him a particularly appealing underdog at plus money.

Conor Cooke (-159) vs. Matty Hodgson (+119) – UK Light-Heavyweight Title

The odds here reflect Cooke’s recent momentum, but there’s more to consider than meets the eye. Hodgson’s last two wins showcase improved striking accuracy and power, while Cooke’s lone loss came against Oscar in a fight that exposed some defensive lapses. The reach advantage belongs to Hodgson (77″ vs 76″) whose experience going the distance and maintained power late in fights makes this closer than the line suggests. Hodgson’s perfect finishing rate in BKFC (both wins and losses) points to a likely stoppage either way. Cooke’s MMA background (6-7) shows a clear tendency toward striking-based outcomes, with all but one win coming via knockout. His recent victory over Mason Shaw demonstrated improved defensive awareness, but Hodgson’s proven power and aggressive style could exploit any remaining gaps, making the current line feel a bit wide for a fighter of Cooke’s defensive vulnerability.

Lewis Keen (-264) vs. Ben Bonner (+190)

This line feels properly placed given Keen’s unblemished record and superior technical striking, but there’s more nuance to consider. Bonner’s lone loss came against Robert Barry, a fighter with a similar style to Keen, though Bonner has shown marked improvement since then, particularly in his impressive win over Ray Putterill. The reach disparity (70″ vs 65″) is significant in bare-knuckle competition, and Keen’s ability to manage distance has been exemplary through three fights. The age factor could play a role – at 26, Keen is seven years younger than Bonner and has shown superior cardio in extended exchanges. Bonner’s power can’t be discounted, but his need to close distance against a longer, more technically sound opponent presents a significant challenge, especially given Keen’s demonstrated ability to maintain his technical approach under pressure.

Karl Thompson (-193) vs. Dawid Chylinski (+143)

Thompson’s victory over Oscar on his record is the standout achievement between these two fighters, but there are fascinating tactical considerations here. Despite being listed at 6’0″, Thompson often fights from a wide stance that can leave him susceptible to power shots, and fight data shows he’s been outstruck in all of his victories before finding the finish. Chylinski, while making his promotional debut, brings an interesting package as a compact powerhouse at 5’8″. Thompson’s proven ability to get up off the canvas and find fight-ending shots demonstrates remarkable resilience, but his tendency to absorb significant damage before securing victory makes this line particularly intriguing. The fact that Thompson has shown vulnerability early in fights while maintaining finishing power creates an interesting risk-reward proposition for bettors.

Anthony Holmes (-270) vs. Chaz Wasserman (+194)

Despite back-to-back losses, Holmes’ placement as a heavy favorite speaks to his technical superiority and championship pedigree in bare-knuckle boxing. His counter-striking style could pose problems for the longer Wasserman (75″ reach vs 70″), but Holmes’ recent defensive issues against Christie and Krol raise questions about whether he deserves to be such a heavy favorite. Wasserman’s showing against Séverac demonstrated both durability and adaptability, and his limited MMA experience includes a bout with UFC fighter Themba Gorimbo. Holmes’ tendency to bounce in and out of the pocket while keeping his head off the centerline has historically been effective, but his recent performances suggest declining defensive awareness. The age factor (39 vs 37) and Holmes’ higher mileage in bare-knuckle competition could play significant roles in the outcome, making Wasserman an intriguing value play at nearly 2-to-1 odds.