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Best Bets: Denver Supercross 2024 Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: Denver Supercross 2024 Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Round 15 in Philadelphia delivered another thrilling chapter in the 2024 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship story. Jett Lawrence’s triumphant return to the top step, his second straight win and seventh on the season, gave him precious breathing room in the title chase. The Aussie prodigy now leads Cooper Webb by 12 points with just two rounds remaining.

The series now turns to the penultimate round in Denver, where the championship could be decided under the thin Rocky Mountain air. Lawrence can lock up the title with a podium finish, while Webb faces a must-win scenario to keep his repeat hopes alive. The stakes couldn’t be higher at Empower Field at Mile High this Saturday. It’s time to dive deep into the numbers, trends and betting lines that will shape this mile-high showdown.

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Schedule and How to Watch Denver Supercross 2024

The 16th round of the 2024 Monster Energy Supercross series roars to life this Saturday, May 4th at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. Early risers can catch qualifying starting at 10:30 a.m. MT. Opening ceremonies rev up at 5:30 p.m. MT before the 450SX Main Event gate drop at 7:00 p.m. MT. Every second of bar-banging action can be seen live on Peacock. For a full breakdown of the event schedule, check out the official event page.

For those interested in betting, keep your eye on NXTbets for real-time odds and pricing updates throughout the season.

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for Denver Supercross 2024

Top Picks and Bets

Rider

Event Winner

Payout on $20

Jett Lawrence

-244

$28.20

Cooper Webb

+364

$92.80

Chase Sexton

+786

$177.20

Jett Lawrence (-244) has one hand firmly on the trophy after another statement win in Philly. The 18-year-old sensation overcame a difficult heat race, where he crashed in the first turn, to charge from a poor gate pick to a decisive victory. Lawrence’s unmatched combination of speed, racecraft, and composure was on full display as he grabbed the holeshot and led every lap en route to his seventh win of the season. Despite a brief wobble in St. Louis and Foxborough, where he finished off the podium in consecutive rounds for the only time this season, Lawrence has been a model of consistency. With five wins in his last eight starts, the Australian sensation has set a new benchmark for excellence in the sport, cementing his status as one of the brightest young stars in recent memory.

As the series heads to Denver for the penultimate round, Lawrence seems to be hitting his stride at the perfect time. His unwavering poise and relentless drive have him on the cusp of a historic first premier class title. With each passing week, the #18 looks more and more like a generational talent destined to rewrite the record books.

On the other hand, Cooper Webb (+364) has gamely kept the title fight alive, but his fourth-place finish in Philly felt like a missed opportunity. The two-time champ had no answer for the pace of Lawrence and Chase Sexton ahead, and he now faces a 12-point deficit with the sands of the hourglass running low. Webb will need to summon every ounce of his famed “clutch gene” and catch a few breaks to deny Lawrence in Denver. Still, at generous +364 odds, Webb is worth a flier for bettors banking on a last-gasp turnaround from the cagey veteran.

Chase Sexton (+786) won’t win the title this year, but the reigning champ has rediscovered his blistering speed in recent rounds. He hounded Lawrence to the checkers in Philly, finishing just five seconds adrift for his third straight podium. Sexton has all the tools to play spoiler in the final two rounds. At nearly 8-1 odds, a small wager on the #1 to upset the applecart in Denver offers enticing value.

Outsider Picks

Rider

Event Winner

Payout on $20

Eli Tomac

+829

$185.80

Jason Anderson

+2859

$591.80

Justin Cooper

+16,849

$3389.80

Eli Tomac‘s (+829) mercurial 2024 season has been a head-scratcher. The 30-year-old all-time great has sprinkled flashes of his unmatched brilliance among uncharacteristic inconsistency. Tomac’s star has dimmed in the championship picture, but he remains a podium threat every time he takes to the track, especially at elevation in his home state of Colorado. If you’re hunting a dark horse pick with a shot at glory in Denver, ET3 is your man at a tempting +829 price.

Jason Anderson (+2859) has quietly put together the best month of anyone not named Jett Lawrence. Three straight top-5s, capped by a thrilling last-lap podium in Philly, have the 2018 champ building serious momentum as the season winds down. Armed with veteran savvy and creative line selection, El Hombre has the chops to be a podium pest in the final two rounds. At these long odds, an each-way bet on Anderson to win or podium is a smart value play.

All Justin Cooper (+16849) does is get better. The sophomore 450 rider has blossomed in 2024, consistently finishing inside the top 10 and even sniffing the top 5. While an outright win is likely out of reach for now, Cooper’s rapid improvement has him poised for a breakout podium sooner than later. Betting on him at Mile High is a dice roll, but one that could pay off big if he puts it all together on the right night.

Head-To-Head Matchups

matchup

Rider

Money Line

Payout per $20

1

Cooper Webb

Jett Lawrence

+273

$74.60

-405

$24.94

2

Cooper Webb

Chase Sexton

-223

$28.97

+163

$52.60

3

Benny Bloss
Justin Barcia

-112

$37.86

-118

$36.95

4

Chase Sexton
Eli Tomac

-120

$36.67

-111

$38.02

5

Hunter Lawrence
Justin Cooper

-103

$39.42

-129

$35.50

In the highly anticipated Webb vs. Lawrence showdown, the oddsmakers heavily favor the red-hot Lawrence (-405) to outpace the two-time champ. However, Webb (+273) has a history of rising to the occasion when the pressure is at its peak. The Webb vs. Sexton (+163) matchup is a toss-up, with Webb’s consistency giving him a slight edge over the streaky Sexton.

Benny Bloss (-112) and Justin Barcia (-118) are evenly matched, with the dynamic Barcia holding a slight advantage. The Sexton (-120) vs. Tomac (-111) duel is another coin flip, as both riders have shown flashes of brilliance amidst inconsistent seasons. Finally, Hunter Lawrence (-103) gets the nod over the up-and-coming Justin Cooper (-129) based on his more extensive experience and proven ability to navigate the treacherous 450SX waters.

Expert Pick for Denver Supercross 2024

All signs point to Jett Lawrence clinching his first premier class title in Denver. The Aussie phenom has been unflappable down the stretch and seems destined to stand atop the podium once again. Look for Lawrence to secure the championship in style, with Webb and Sexton rounding out the podium.

Championship Futures Update

Rider

Champion Odds

Payout on $20

Jett Lawrence

-1595

$21.25

Chase Sexton

+817

$183.40

Cooper Webb

+2757

$571.40

Unsurprisingly, Lawrence has tightened his stranglehold on the title picture. He now sits at a staggering -1595 to close the deal, in from -468 after Nashville. Webb drifted to +817, out from +184. Sexton is technically alive at +2757 but would need both Lawrence and Webb to crumble. This is Jett’s title to lose.

Where to Bet on Denver Supercross 2024

Bets for Denver Supercross can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbet’s comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide

As the 2024 Supercross season crescendos towards a mile-high climax, all eyes are locked on the bubbling Lawrence vs. Webb title fight. Will the Aussie phenom close the door on a historic championship rookie season? Can Webb summon one last miracle to send this battle to the final round? The tension promises to be thicker than Denver’s thin air when the gates drop for an earth-shaking 20 minutes plus one lap. Bring on the chaos!

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