Best Bets: F1 Italian Grand Prix 2024 Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Lando Norris (+120): Norris’ dominant performance at Zandvoort wasn’t just a flash in the pan – it was the culmination of a season-long trend of steady improvement and maximizing opportunities. The British driver has consistently outperformed his machinery, showcasing a remarkable ability to adapt his driving style to extract every ounce of performance. Norris’ racecraft has also taken a step forward, as evidenced by his decisive overtake on Verstappen early in the Dutch GP. Monza’s high-speed layout plays to the strengths of the McLaren MCL38, which has excelled in low-downforce trim thanks to its efficient aerodynamics and potent Mercedes power unit. Norris’ ability to carry momentum through the chicanes and nail his braking points could prove decisive in qualifying, setting him up for another strong Sunday showing.

Max Verstappen (+200): Verstappen’s uncharacteristic struggle at his home race raised eyebrows, but a closer look at the data suggests it may have been an anomaly rather than a sign of a shifting tide. The Dutchman’s RB20 suffered from a peculiar lack of balance in Zandvoort’s tight, twisty middle sector – an issue unlikely to rear its head on Monza’s long straights and sweeping corners. Verstappen’s racecraft and tire management remain second to none, and his ability to consistently nail his starts could prove crucial in fending off the charging McLarens. With Red Bull likely to bring upgrades aimed at addressing their Zandvoort woes, Verstappen remains a formidable contender despite the lengthening odds.

Charles Leclerc (+700): Leclerc’s odds reflect his and Ferrari’s inconsistent form this season, but the Monegasque has a habit of pulling out big results when the pressure is on. His measured drive to third in Zandvoort, keeping a charging Piastri at bay, showcased a newfound maturity and racecraft. Leclerc’s one-lap pace has never been in doubt, and his ability to put together a flawless qualifying lap could be key to springing a surprise on the favorites. Ferrari’s upgraded SF-24 is rumored to feature improved straight line speed and better tire degradation – both crucial factors at Monza. If the upgrades deliver and Leclerc can keep his composure, a fairytale home victory isn’t out of the question.

Oscar Piastri (+800): While overshadowed by his teammate’s win, Oscar Piastri’s fourth place in the Netherlands was an impressive drive in its own right. The rookie has shown flashes of brilliance this season and seems to be growing in confidence with each race. If McLaren maintains their performance edge at Monza, Piastri could be a savvy pick for a podium finish at generous odds.

Carlos Sainz (+900): Like his teammate Leclerc, Carlos Sainz will be fired up to deliver a strong result in front of the passionate Italian fans. The Spaniard claimed a surprise pole at Monza last year and has a knack for putting together clean, consistent races. With Ferrari’s upgrades and his own solid form, Sainz is a tempting outsider bet for a top-three finish.

Lewis Hamilton (+1600): It’s been an up-and-down season for Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes, but the seven-time champion can never be dismissed. Hamilton is tied with Michael Schumacher for the most wins at Monza (5) and will be hungry to add to that tally. Mercedes have shown signs of progress and could be contenders if they find the right set-up. At these long odds, a small wager on Hamilton to sneak a podium could pay off handsomely.