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Best Bets: F1 Mexico Grand Prix Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Best Bets: F1 Mexico Grand Prix Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Formula 1 continues its escapades in the Americas this weekend with a trip to the City of Palaces. Max Verstappen is on a high after securing the maximum compliment of points on offer in Austin and is pushing the Drivers Championship down to the wire. The Dutchman takes the driver’s seat in the F1 Mexico Grand Prix pre-event odds, carrying the best finishing average on the grid in the last five outings. His title rivals, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, remain in the hunt but need to start winning races again to put the Red Bull in their rearview. Find out who else could challenge for top honors as the Championship enters Latin America.

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Schedule and How to Watch the F1 Mexico Grand Prix

The Mexican capital welcomes Formula 1 for the first of two Grands Prix in Latin America. Teams set up shop at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez from Friday, October 24, until Sunday, October 26. There is no sprint this weekend, returning us to the standard scheduling of practice on Friday, qualifying on Saturday, and the main event on the third day. The grid assembles for the race on Sunday at 2:00 pm CST, and it’ll be interesting to see the support for the event with the absence of Sergio Perez this year. Find out if his former teammate Max Verstappen can keep his title hopes alive, live on ESPN.

F1 Mexico Grand Prix Grand Prix Odds

Event Winner Odds

Oh, how the tables have turned in the last four races. Heading into Monza, the papaya boys looked poised to race away in the Drivers’ Championship. Naturally, the four-time World Champion, Max Verstappen, had other ideas. The Red Bull star has displayed his experience and class late in the season to deliver five consecutive top-two results since Zandvoort, three of them as the victor. He averaged 1.40 in that period, significantly better than any of his peers. More cause for concern among his rivals is the fact that he’s the most successful navigator around this circuit with five triumphs.

Norris has also clinched five trophies this campaign, with the most recent one coming in Hungary. He started with three rostrums in the garage in the previous five rounds, coming off a runner-up in the United States. Two seems to be his number, as he finished second in this Grand Prix 12 months ago, and is the closest chaser to his colleague in the Championship. Piastri appears to have hit a wall since Monza, failing to stand on the podium in his last three races. It’s not that his results have been catastrophic, but we’ve come to expect more from the Aussie as the winningest racer on the grid with seven scalps in the bag.

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Driver
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Max Verstappen
+144
$48.80
Lando Norris
+263
$72.60
Oscar Piastri
+336
$87.20
George Russell
+1246
$269.20
Charles Leclerc
+1307
$281.40
Lewis Hamilton
+2310
$482.00
Kimi Antonelli
+3380
$696.00
Yuki Tsunoda
+17828
$3,585.60
Alexander Albon
+17828
$3,585.60
Carlos Sainz
+17828
$3,585.60
Fernando Alonso
+17828
$3,585.60
Esteban Ocon
+17828
$3,585.60
Franco Colapinto
+17828
$3,585.60
Gabriel Bortoleto
+17828
$3,585.60
Isack Hadjar
+17828
$3,585.60
Lance Stroll
+17828
$3,585.60
Liam Lawson
+17828
$3,585.60
Nico Hulkenberg
+17828
$3,585.60
Oliver Bearman
+17828
$3,585.60
Pierre Gasly
+17828
$3,585.60
Oscar Piastri

Oscar Piastri has gone podiumless in his last three starts, reducing his lead to only 14 points in the standings.

Expert Pick

Max Verstappen earns our confidence leading into the F1 Mexico Grand Prix. He’s found his rhythm towards the back end of the season, prevailing in three of his previous four outings. 

Podium Odds

The two Ferrari drivers delivered their best Sunday performance since Austria. Charles Leclerc found his way back onto the rostrum, the sixth occasion this season, and Lewis Hamilton earned a fourth place for the fourth time in 2025. Leclerc has joined in the champagne celebrations at this event for the past two years. In 2024, he accompanied his partner, Carlos Sainz, onto the platform after the latter took the checkered flag. Sir Hamilton looked comfortable this weekend and just missed the podium in the sprint and the Grand Prix. He’s tasted glory in Mexico twice before and stood on the platform in six editions.

George Russell endured a tough day out in Texas, settling for sixth place, and it’s not looking much better for the Mercedes senior. His team hasn’t produced the winning vehicle here since 2019, and Russell hasn’t finished inside the top three here. However, he’s managed to wiggle his way into the top three in eight races this year, clinching the spoils twice.

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Driver
Event Podium
Payout on $20
Max Verstappen
-374
$25.35
Lando Norris
-185
$30.81
Oscar Piastri
-152
$33.16
George Russell
+183
$56.60
Charles Leclerc
+227
$65.40
Lewis Hamilton
+321
$84.20
Kimi Antonelli
+372
$94.40
Yuki Tsunoda
+4202
$860.40
Alexander Albon
+8708
$1,761.60
Isack Hadjar
+9424
$1,904.80
Carlos Sainz
+9424
$1,904.80
Liam Lawson
+9424
$1,904.80
Fernando Alonso
+9424
$1,904.80
Nico Hulkenberg
+9424
$1,904.80
Lance Stroll
+9424
$1,904.80
Oliver Bearman
+9424
$1,904.80
Gabriel Bortoleto
+9424
$1,904.80
Pierre Gasly
+9424
$1,904.80
Esteban Ocon
+9424
$1,904.80
Franco Colapinto
+9424
$1,904.80
Lando Norris

Lando Norris closed the gap to 14 points in the Championship and is closing in on his teammate with three podiums in his last four races.

Odds for the Top 6

“The Big Four” dominated the top six positions in Texas, and if the past three results here are anything to go by, we are in for much of the same this weekend. Pierre Gasly and Alexander Albon are the only drivers outside of non-major teams to have clinched top sixes in the last five editions. Albon has earned five top sixes in 2025, with the last one coming in the Netherlands. Since Zandvoort, he’s ended outside of the top 10 in three rounds. As for Gasly, he’s not even in the mix for a top 10 at the moment, falling outside of that threshold in the previous six rounds.

Yuki Tsunoda produced another strong performance to show his intentions to continue in F1 next season. He crossed the line in seventh for his second-best return of the campaign, and his third top 10 in the last Sunday races. Looking at the Defending Champion, Carlos Sainz, we know he’s capable of a top six here, but he’s starting with a five-place grid penalty after colliding with Kimi Antonelli. The rookie is an eight-time top-sixer this term, with two coming in the previous three rounds.

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Driver
Event Top 6
Payout on $20
Max Verstappen
-720
$22.78
Lando Norris
-473
$24.23
Oscar Piastri
-437
$24.57
George Russell
-224
$28.93
Charles Leclerc
-195
$30.26
Lewis Hamilton
-151
$33.25
Kimi Antonelli
-136
$34.71
Yuki Tsunoda
+376
$95.20
Alexander Albon
+536
$127.20
Isack Hadjar
+597
$139.40
Carlos Sainz
+670
$154.00
Fernando Alonso
+975
$215.00
Liam Lawson
+1132
$246.40
Nico Hulkenberg
+2968
$613.60
Lance Stroll
+3894
$798.80
Gabriel Bortoleto
+4025
$825.00
Oliver Bearman
+5855
$1,191.00
Esteban Ocon
+6417
$1,303.40
Pierre Gasly
+9955
$2,011.00
Franco Colapinto
+10106
$2,041.20

Odds for a Top 10 Finish

Racing Bulls prodigy Isack Hadjar has pieced together a presentable rookie season with eight top 10s, including one podium. He’s achieved top 10 honors in eight races this year, three of them in his previous five races. The youngster needs to regain focus and work on what he can control after a frustrating weekend in Austin. Across the experience spectrum, we encounter Fernando Alonso with seven top 10s and Nico Hulkenberg with six. The Sauber veteran greeted the steward in eighth at the Circuit of the Americas, his first top 10 in seven starts.

Double World Champion Alonso is building consistency late in the season. He’s notched up eight top 10s in his past 11 races, and lines up after a 10th-place return last weekend. Switching back to the rookies, Oliver Bearman has impressed us since the Netherlands, collecting three top tens in five races, taking his total to six in 2025. Another youngster in the form of Liam Lawson is worth a look, after collecting five top 10s. The issue for the Kiwi is consistency, with only one arriving in his previous five endeavors.

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Driver
Event Top 10
Payout on $20
Max Verstappen
-1165
$21.72
Lando Norris
-912
$22.19
Oscar Piastri
-888
$22.25
George Russell
-610
$23.28
Charles Leclerc
-572
$23.50
Lewis Hamilton
-481
$24.16
Kimi Antonelli
-426
$24.69
Yuki Tsunoda
-122
$36.39
Alexander Albon
+102
$40.40
Isack Hadjar
+108
$41.60
Carlos Sainz
+120
$44.00
Fernando Alonso
+145
$49.00
Liam Lawson
+171
$54.20
Nico Hulkenberg
+335
$87.00
Lance Stroll
+380
$96.00
Gabriel Bortoleto
+401
$100.20
Oliver Bearman
+447
$109.40
Esteban Ocon
+538
$127.60
Pierre Gasly
+635
$147.00
Franco Colapinto
+1576
$335.20
Charles Leclerc

Charles Leclerc has finished third in the Mexican Grand Prix in his past two appearances. Can he finally get the win in 2025?

H2H of Interest

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Matchup
Moneyline
Payout on $20
Lando Norris
+148
$49.60
Max Verstappen
-148
$33.51
Nico Hulkenberg
-161
$32.42
Fernando Alonso
+161
$52.20
Liam Lawson
+162
$52.40
Yuki Tsunoda
-162
$32.35
Isack Hadjar
-227
$28.81
Oliver Bearman
+227
$65.40
Franco Colapinto
+148
$49.60
Pierre Gasly
-148
$33.51

Fastest Qualifier Odds

Max Verstappen races into Mexico leading the Pirelli Pole Position award, with five fastest qualifying laps in this Championship. Three of the five have arrived in the last four rounds, highlighting his current confident form. While he’s dominated on other tracks, Verstappen has only ever started on the front row once, in his five victories here. Charles Leclerc found himself on pole here in 2019 and 2023, while his former teammate Carlos Sainz took the first spot the last time F1 was in town.

Driver’s Championship leader Oscar Piastri boasts the fastest qualifying times this term, the last of which was in the Netherlands. Across the McLaren garage, Lando Norris has scooped the pole position prize on four Saturdays this year, his ultimate one coming in Belgium. George Russell is a double fastest qualifier this term, but Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez hasn’t been his happiest track in qualifying. He started second in 2022, behind Verstappen, eventually finishing the Grand Prix in fourth.

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Team
Constructor Winner Odds
Payout on $20
McLaren
+136
$47.20
Red Bull
+192
$58.40
Ferrari
+961
$212.20
Mercedes
+1060
$232.00
Williams
+10720
$2,164.00
Aston Martin
+10720
$2,164.00
Alpine
+10720
$2,164.00
Haas
+10720
$2,164.00
Racing Bulls
+10720
$2,164.00
Sauber
+10720
$2,164.00

Odds for the Constructors' Winner

McLaren produced the winning car in 80% of the first 15 races on the calendar. The last four races have made a different outcome for the Woking garage, as they’ve had to sit back and watch Red Bull celebrate in three out of the four rounds since Zandvoort. While the market still has faith in the papayas, Red Bull is starting to find their feet, courtesy of Max Verstappen. The Milton-Keynes operation is licking its lips as it enters Latin America, boasting five constructors’ triumphs in the Mexican capital since 2017.

Mercedes is the only other team on the grid to have tasted glory this season. On both occasions, it was their senior driver, George Russell, contributing to the cause. The German-owned team last lifted a constructors’ trophy in Singapore two rounds ago, but it’s been far longer in Mexico City. Lewis Hamilton last handed Merc a victory here in 2019. Finally, Ferrari is the defending champion, after Sainz triumphed in 2024. The challenge for them is their recent form, where they’ve never looked like a serious contender for a checkered flag.

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Team
Constructor Winner Odds
$20 Payout
McLaren
+102
$40.40
Red Bull
+283
$76.60
Ferrari
+842
$188.40
Mercedes
+1106
$241.20
Racing Bulls
+10702
$2,160.40
Alpine
+10702
$2,160.40
Aston Martin
+10702
$2,160.40
Haas
+10702
$2,160.40
Sauber
+10702
$2,160.40
Williams
+10702
$2,160.40

Odds for the Midfield Winner Race

Looking at the last three races, you wouldn’t think Alex Albon has the most midfield wins behind him. However, the Williams pilot has achieved the feat on five occasions, entering the top six on four of them. He’s closely followed by the veteran duo of Alonso and Hulkenberg, who each have four to their name. The German driver took the honors in Austin, just ahead of Oliver Bearman.  The rookie earned his second consecutive midfield runner-up and will fancy his chances of eventually taking top honors in this competition.

At one stage this season, Isack Hadjar appeared to be the midfield driver to beat. That all changed after his podium in the Netherlands, where he’s battled to remain inside the top 10. We’ll cap it off with Carlos Sainz, who collected another podium for Williams in Texas, albeit in the sprint. He’s topped the midfield race twice this year, but his grid penalty in Mexico City might complicate his chances of challenging in this pool.

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Driver
Midfield Winner
Payout on $20
Alexander Albon
+386
$97.20
Isack Hadjar
+424
$104.80
Carlos Sainz
+488
$117.60
Fernando Alonso
+666
$153.20
Liam Lawson
+796
$179.20
Nico Hulkenberg
+2133
$446.60
Lance Stroll
+2589
$537.80
Gabriel Bortoleto
+2717
$563.40
Oliver Bearman
+3647
$749.40
Esteban Ocon
+4000
$820.00
Pierre Gasly
+5536
$1,127.20
Franco Colapinto
+18259
$3,671.80

Where to Bet on the Mexico Grand Prix

The Constructors’ was done and dusted in Singapore, but the Drivers’ Championship is only heating up. Max Verstappen enters as the in-form driver and has Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri in his sights. Can the reigning champion catch the MCL39s or will McLaren take one step closer to their first Drivers’ title in 17 years?

Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you prepare for the Formula 1 Gran Premio De La Ciudad De La Mexico 2025. If you’re a newbie in the world of F1 betting, our comprehensive F1 Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.

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