Phoenix Raceway’s fall NASCAR Cup Series race will not decide the championship for the first time since 2019, but Sunday’s Freeway Insurance 500 still arrives with the title picture tight at the top. Kyle Larson will take a 49-point lead over Denny Hamlin into the race, and Larson’s 2.8 average finish through the first six Chase races has made him the championship favorite.
Chase Briscoe has added pressure on the leaders by winning the last two races at Las Vegas and Charlotte and cutting 58 points off Larson over the last two events as the Chase moves toward Talladega, Martinsville and Homestead-Miami. Briscoe also has one Phoenix victory, along with one top-five, four top-10s and an 18.4 average finish in 11 career starts there, though he finished 37th in the spring Phoenix race.
Phoenix history gives several contenders added confidence. Ryan Blaney has won the March 2026 Phoenix race and the 2025 fall Phoenix race, and he has two wins, 11 top-fives and 14 top-10s in 21 career starts there. Larson has one Phoenix win, 12 top-fives and 16 top-10s in 24 starts, while Hamlin has 42 Phoenix starts, two wins, 23 top-10s and a Cup-record 31 straight lead-lap finishes at the track. Christopher Bell also has two Phoenix victories and led 176 laps in the spring race before finishing second.
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