Six rounds remain in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, and it could be all over by the end of the weekend. The Marquez brothers are the only ones who can mathematically clinch the title, but the more realistic outcome is that Marc Marquez will bag his seventh Championship by Sunday if he departs Motegi with a 185-point lead. The older Marquez lines up for the Japanese GP as the favorite in the pre-event odds, fresh off his 11th victory of the season. Let’s find out if anyone can stop him in our best bets and analysis below.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
Prepare yourself for a weekend of early mornings or late nights, whichever way you prefer to look at it. Riders set up shop at the Mobility Resort Motegi from Friday, September 26, to Sunday, September 28. All attention is cast to the Grand Prix on Sunday when Marc Marquez could wrap up the Championship. Bikes assemble on the grid at 1:00 am EDT Sunday, which you can watch live on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP Japan
Grand Prix Winner Odds
Young Alex Marquez might have gotten the better of his brother in Catalonia, big his older brother showed him who is boss at the San Marino GP. Marc Marquez has now ridden inside Victory Lane on 11 occasions this season, prevailing in 80% of the last 10 Sunday races. Alex is enjoying his best MotoGP season to date with nine podiums, including two triumphs across 16 rounds.
Marco Bezzecchi collected his fifth rostrum in five races in the previous round, moving him to within striking distance of a top-three spot in the standings. He’s chasing Francesco Bagnaia, who rode himself onto seven rostrums in the first 11 rounds of the campaign, but hasn’t formed part of the post-race celebrations since Germany. “Pecco” touches down in the “Land of the Rising Sun” as the defending Champion, but he’s had to play second-fiddle to his teammate Marc Marquez this season.
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Player
Event Winner
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
-250
$28.00
Alex Marquez
+450
$110.00
Marco Bezzecchi
+800
$180.00
Francesco Bagnaia
+900
$200.00
Pedro Acosta
+1900
$400.00
Fabio Quartararo
+2200
$460.00
Franco Morbidelli
+3400
$700.00
Fabio Di Giannantonio
+3400
$700.00
Brad Binder
+4900
$1,000.00
Luca Marini
+5900
$1,200.00
Enea Bastianini
+5900
$1,200.00
Fermin Aldeguer
+5900
$1,200.00
Jorge Martin
+6400
$1,300.00
Maverick Viñales
+6400
$1,300.00
Ai Ogura
+6400
$1,300.00
Johann Zarco
+7900
$1,600.00
Joan Mir
+9900
$2,000.00
Jack Miller
+9900
$2,000.00
Raul Fernandez
+9900
$2,000.00
Miguel Oliveira
+14900
$3,000.00
Alex Rins
+24900
$5,000.00
Takaaki Nakagami
+99900
$20,000.00
Aleix Espargaro
+99900
$20,000.00
Augusto Fernandez
+99900
$20,000.00
Somkiat Chantra
+99900
$20,000.00
Lorenzo Savadori
+99900
$20,000.00
Expert Pick
His odds are short, but a logical person can’t look beyond Marc Marquez’s dominant record this season. He averages 1.63 in his last 11 races, highlighting his winning consistency. “The Ant of Cervera” enters MotoGP Japan at -250 for the win. Placing $20 on the Championship leader offers a potential payout of $28.00.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is staring down a seventh MotoGP World Championship, but when will he secure it? Can he enter Victory Lane for a 12th time this campaign to put the title race to bed, or does his younger sibling have a trick up his sleeve in Motegi?
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Motul Grand Prix of Japan. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Fermín Aldeguer suffered a broken femur while training at the Aspar circuit in Valencia and has been ruled out of the Sepang preseason test (Feb 3–5). He joined Gresini’s Kuala Lumpur launch by video call to give a recovery update, saying his condition is improving “day by day” but that he must remain at home for rehabilitation and further medical checks. He will miss the Thailand season opener and does not expect to be back on the bike before the Brazil or Austin rounds in March, declining to set a firm comeback date until examinations show how his leg responds.
The injury has cost Aldeguer valuable preseason track time and disrupted his preparation for a second full MotoGP season after he won the 2025 Indonesian Grand Prix and was named Rookie of the Year. Gresini will lose the development and race miles he would have gained in Sepang and the early rounds, while Ducati test rider Michele Pirro is his likely substitute while medical clearance is pending. Aldeguer’s timeline also contrasts with an earlier, more optimistic comment from Ducati chief Davide Tardozzi that a return for the opener was realistic, highlighting uncertainty about his readiness for the early rounds.
The setback also affects Aldeguer’s longer-term Ducati pathway. He signed a four‑year deal with Ducati in 2025 and helped Gresini to second place in the teams’ championship, positioning the satellite outfit as a near‑factory development route. Media reports linking Ducati to Pedro Acosta as a potential 2027 target have been framed as relevant to Aldeguer’s prospects for a future factory seat. For now, Gresini and Aldeguer are treating any return as conditional on ongoing rehabilitation and the results of further medical examinations. His recovery pace will determine his availability in the early rounds and how his Ducati trajectory evolves.
MotoGP is back in Europe after a thrilling tour of the Asia-Pacific region, where Marc Marquez both bagged the World Championship and ended his season in the space of a week. Now, his younger brother, Alex, is in the driving seat in the Portugal pre-event odds, as the grid assembles in the Algarve this weekend. …
The 2024 MotoGP season is off to a dramatic start after a wild Portuguese Grand Prix that saw Pramac’s Jorge Martin dominate from start to finish while defending champion Francesco Bagnaia crashed out after colliding with Marc Marquez. Meanwhile, rookie sensation Pedro Acosta scored a stunning maiden MotoGP podium in just his second race. With …
Yamaha has abandoned its long-used crossplane inline-four and switched the M1 to a V4 for the 2026 MotoGP season, a move framed internally as a shift from a contingency “plan B” to the primary strategy. Managing director Paolo Pavesio said the change was driven by the forthcoming 2027 technical regulations—notably a 50 mm reduction in front-fairing width and much tighter aerodynamic limits—that effectively leave an inline-four “no room for wings,” a position echoed by Monster Yamaha director Massimo Meregalli. While cylinder configuration is not explicitly banned, Yamaha concluded the V4 was the practical response to the new aero constraints and to prepare for the transition to an 850cc era that will follow the final year of 1000cc competition.
On track, Yamaha has already begun evaluating the V4: the new layout topped the Sepang shakedown day two timesheets with Jack Miller, and Fabio Quartararo finished as the fastest Yamaha at the end of the shakedown, about 0.5 seconds behind Honda test rider Aleix Espargaro. Toprak Razgatlioglu used the shakedown day to reacquaint himself with the circuit while Yamaha ran a structured test program across eight bikes to converge on an optimal package and supply equal equipment to all four riders. The factory plans to assess the V4 against the full 2026 grid during the Official Sepang test, and it has scheduled a first 850cc track run in private tests in early spring as parallel development of the smaller-displacement M1 continues.
Yamaha accelerated investment in personnel after slipping from title contention, hiring figures such as Max Bartolini and supporting a recovery that delivered a return to pole, a long-awaited podium and roughly doubled season points in 2025. Pavesio expects the V4 to bring more consistent race performance even if single-lap speed is initially lower, and he anticipates continued performance growth through 2026. By repositioning its technical strategy around a V4 architecture alongside ongoing 850 work, Yamaha has made a significant shift in engine development that could reshape competitive dynamics as teams adapt to the new regulations.
Best Bets: 2025 MotoGP Japan Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Table of Contents
Six rounds remain in the 2025 MotoGP Championship, and it could be all over by the end of the weekend. The Marquez brothers are the only ones who can mathematically clinch the title, but the more realistic outcome is that Marc Marquez will bag his seventh Championship by Sunday if he departs Motegi with a 185-point lead. The older Marquez lines up for the Japanese GP as the favorite in the pre-event odds, fresh off his 11th victory of the season. Let’s find out if anyone can stop him in our best bets and analysis below.
After reading our analysis, check out our partner sportsbooks to get valuable promotions and place bets.
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Schedule and How to Watch the Japanese MotoGP
Prepare yourself for a weekend of early mornings or late nights, whichever way you prefer to look at it. Riders set up shop at the Mobility Resort Motegi from Friday, September 26, to Sunday, September 28. All attention is cast to the Grand Prix on Sunday when Marc Marquez could wrap up the Championship. Bikes assemble on the grid at 1:00 am EDT Sunday, which you can watch live on Fox Sports 1.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape.
For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change? Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets and Odds for 2025 MotoGP Japan
Grand Prix Winner Odds
Young Alex Marquez might have gotten the better of his brother in Catalonia, big his older brother showed him who is boss at the San Marino GP. Marc Marquez has now ridden inside Victory Lane on 11 occasions this season, prevailing in 80% of the last 10 Sunday races. Alex is enjoying his best MotoGP season to date with nine podiums, including two triumphs across 16 rounds.
Marco Bezzecchi collected his fifth rostrum in five races in the previous round, moving him to within striking distance of a top-three spot in the standings. He’s chasing Francesco Bagnaia, who rode himself onto seven rostrums in the first 11 rounds of the campaign, but hasn’t formed part of the post-race celebrations since Germany. “Pecco” touches down in the “Land of the Rising Sun” as the defending Champion, but he’s had to play second-fiddle to his teammate Marc Marquez this season.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick
His odds are short, but a logical person can’t look beyond Marc Marquez’s dominant record this season. He averages 1.63 in his last 11 races, highlighting his winning consistency. “The Ant of Cervera” enters MotoGP Japan at -250 for the win. Placing $20 on the Championship leader offers a potential payout of $28.00.
Where to Bet on MotoGP
Marc Marquez is staring down a seventh MotoGP World Championship, but when will he secure it? Can he enter Victory Lane for a 12th time this campaign to put the title race to bed, or does his younger sibling have a trick up his sleeve in Motegi?
Visit our partner sportsbooks to access special deals that will elevate your betting experience as you anticipate the upcoming Motul Grand Prix of Japan. If you’re a newbie in the world of MotoGP betting, our comprehensive MotoGP Betting Guide is a must-read. Remember to enjoy the race and make your betting choices wisely. Betting responsibly ensures the fun lasts all season long.
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Offer Score
Related Posts
Aldeguer’s Broken Femur Rules Him Out of Sepang Test
Fermín Aldeguer suffered a broken femur while training at the Aspar circuit in Valencia and has been ruled out of the Sepang preseason test (Feb 3–5). He joined Gresini’s Kuala Lumpur launch by video call to give a recovery update, saying his condition is improving “day by day” but that he must remain at home for rehabilitation and further medical checks. He will miss the Thailand season opener and does not expect to be back on the bike before the Brazil or Austin rounds in March, declining to set a firm comeback date until examinations show how his leg responds.
The injury has cost Aldeguer valuable preseason track time and disrupted his preparation for a second full MotoGP season after he won the 2025 Indonesian Grand Prix and was named Rookie of the Year. Gresini will lose the development and race miles he would have gained in Sepang and the early rounds, while Ducati test rider Michele Pirro is his likely substitute while medical clearance is pending. Aldeguer’s timeline also contrasts with an earlier, more optimistic comment from Ducati chief Davide Tardozzi that a return for the opener was realistic, highlighting uncertainty about his readiness for the early rounds.
The setback also affects Aldeguer’s longer-term Ducati pathway. He signed a four‑year deal with Ducati in 2025 and helped Gresini to second place in the teams’ championship, positioning the satellite outfit as a near‑factory development route. Media reports linking Ducati to Pedro Acosta as a potential 2027 target have been framed as relevant to Aldeguer’s prospects for a future factory seat. For now, Gresini and Aldeguer are treating any return as conditional on ongoing rehabilitation and the results of further medical examinations. His recovery pace will determine his availability in the early rounds and how his Ducati trajectory evolves.
Best Bets: 2025 MotoGP Portugal Pre-Event Odds Analysis
MotoGP is back in Europe after a thrilling tour of the Asia-Pacific region, where Marc Marquez both bagged the World Championship and ended his season in the space of a week. Now, his younger brother, Alex, is in the driving seat in the Portugal pre-event odds, as the grid assembles in the Algarve this weekend. …
Best Bets: 2024 MotoGP Grand Prix of the Americas Pre-Event Odds Analysis
The 2024 MotoGP season is off to a dramatic start after a wild Portuguese Grand Prix that saw Pramac’s Jorge Martin dominate from start to finish while defending champion Francesco Bagnaia crashed out after colliding with Marc Marquez. Meanwhile, rookie sensation Pedro Acosta scored a stunning maiden MotoGP podium in just his second race. With …
Yamaha switches M1 to V4 over 2027 aero rules
Yamaha has abandoned its long-used crossplane inline-four and switched the M1 to a V4 for the 2026 MotoGP season, a move framed internally as a shift from a contingency “plan B” to the primary strategy. Managing director Paolo Pavesio said the change was driven by the forthcoming 2027 technical regulations—notably a 50 mm reduction in front-fairing width and much tighter aerodynamic limits—that effectively leave an inline-four “no room for wings,” a position echoed by Monster Yamaha director Massimo Meregalli. While cylinder configuration is not explicitly banned, Yamaha concluded the V4 was the practical response to the new aero constraints and to prepare for the transition to an 850cc era that will follow the final year of 1000cc competition.
On track, Yamaha has already begun evaluating the V4: the new layout topped the Sepang shakedown day two timesheets with Jack Miller, and Fabio Quartararo finished as the fastest Yamaha at the end of the shakedown, about 0.5 seconds behind Honda test rider Aleix Espargaro. Toprak Razgatlioglu used the shakedown day to reacquaint himself with the circuit while Yamaha ran a structured test program across eight bikes to converge on an optimal package and supply equal equipment to all four riders. The factory plans to assess the V4 against the full 2026 grid during the Official Sepang test, and it has scheduled a first 850cc track run in private tests in early spring as parallel development of the smaller-displacement M1 continues.
Yamaha accelerated investment in personnel after slipping from title contention, hiring figures such as Max Bartolini and supporting a recovery that delivered a return to pole, a long-awaited podium and roughly doubled season points in 2025. Pavesio expects the V4 to bring more consistent race performance even if single-lap speed is initially lower, and he anticipates continued performance growth through 2026. By repositioning its technical strategy around a V4 architecture alongside ongoing 850 work, Yamaha has made a significant shift in engine development that could reshape competitive dynamics as teams adapt to the new regulations.