The roar of engines and the scent of burnt rubber at Buddh International Circuit are now behind us as the Grand Prix of India crowned Marco Bezzecchi the winner, in a race that heightened tensions in the title chase. Ducati reigned supreme with Bezzecchi and Jorge Martín claiming the top spots, while Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo secured third. A significant narrative was Pecco Bagnaia’s loss of vital championship points, narrowing the gap to a mere 13 points between him and the ever-persistent Martín.
Repsol Honda Team, traditionally strong contenders, faced a challenging weekend. Marc Márquez, despite his commendable grit after a crash, finished ninth. Meanwhile, Joan Mir showcased a surge of improvement, finishing fifth and setting an optimistic tone for Honda as they approach their home Grand Prix in Japan.
Now, we turn our sights to Japan. Mobility Resort Motegi awaits the riders, a circuit filled with its own unique challenges and stories. As the championship fight intensifies, the Grand Prix of Japan promises exhilarating racing and an intriguing contest for bettors. The question looms – can Ducati maintain their dominance, or will another team rise to challenge the Italian giants? Stay with us as we dive deep into odds, analyses, and the top picks for the Japanese showdown.
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Schedule and How to Watch the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
The Twin Ring Motegi is abuzz with anticipation, readying itself for a series of riveting MotoGP events from September 29th to October 1st. It’s all leading up to the crowning glory: the Grand Prix of Japan. For a detailed view of the weekend’s events, refer to the official schedule. For enthusiasts who can’t be at the venue in person, be sure to check the official MotoGP website for viewing options. (Note: While live broadcasts might be limited in certain regions, including the US, you can still catch comprehensive race highlights and updates on the website!) If betting is on your agenda, don’t forget to follow the live action and keep an eye on NXTbets for updates on odds and prices.
Best Bets and Picks for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
With a range of betting options available, from Event Winner to Head-to-Head bets, bettors are presented with a wide spectrum of wagering opportunities. Here are our top picks and dark horse selections for this event:
Top Picks and Bets
Driver
Event Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Francesco Bagnaia
+317
$83.40
Jorge Martin
+413
$102.60
Marco Bezzecchi
+525
$125.00
Brad Binder
+999
$219.80
Fabio Quartararo
+1063
$232.60
Leading the odds is Francesco Bagnaia, and rightly so. His consistent season and being the current championship leader place him in good stead, but the recent setback at the Indian GP could play on his mind, especially with teammate Jorge Martin snapping at his heels.
Jorge Martin, with odds of +413, has been a revelation this season. Having inched to within 13 points of Bagnaia’s standings lead with his 2nd place finish at the Indian GP, he showcases momentum and determination, proving that he is not just in the fight but a genuine threat to the championship.
Marco Bezzecchi, fresh from his victory lap in India, comes into Motegi with a shot of confidence. His odds reflect not just his recent win but also a season where he has consistently been a podium threat.
Brad Binder and Fabio Quartararo, both offering longer odds, are wild cards in this race. Binder’s consistency places him fourth in the general standings, while Quartararo, despite being further down the odds list, has shown he can clinch podium finishes. Both riders have the capability to upset the perceived hierarchy and throw in a twist at Motegi.
Outsider Picks
Driver
Event Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
+1438
$307.60
Johann Zarco
+1438
$307.60
Aleix Espargaro
+1718
$363.60
Marc Marquez, with odds of +1438, may not have had his best season, but his reputation as a multi-time world champion precedes him. Motegi’s technical nature, combined with Marquez’s penchant for late braking and aggressive cornering, makes him a formidable contender. Despite his unfortunate slip in India, his ability to swiftly climb back and finish ninth demonstrates the Spaniard’s indomitable spirit and resilience.
Johann Zarco, possessing the same odds as Marquez, has had flashes of brilliance this season. Racing for Ducati, a machine that has been dominant throughout, there’s always the possibility that Zarco finds the sweet spot with the setup and emerges as a surprising frontrunner. His consistent performances and occasional podium finishes give weight to this speculation.
Aleix Espargaro‘s +1718 odds might make him the lengthiest shot of the trio, but the Aprilia rider has been in the form of his life. The bike’s notable performance improvements combined with Espargaro’s vast experience mean he could exploit any weaknesses in the favorites, especially if unpredictable conditions level the playing field. With the nature of MotoGP being as unpredictable as it is, dismissing any of these outsiders would be unwise.
Head-To-Head Picks
For the imminent duel at the Motegi’s Mobility Resort, anticipation is at fever pitch as numerous matchups are set to captivate and enthrall. Weighing in on recent performances, past records at this Japanese circuit, and its distinct challenges, we’ve spotlighted some of the most electrifying head-to-head confrontations poised to unfold at the Grand Prix of Japan:
Matchup
(Favorite in Bold)
Winner Odds
Joan Mir vs. Franco Morbidelli
-104
Fabio Quartararo vs. Marc Marquez
-122
Johann Zarco vs. Marc Marquez
-102
Miguel Oliveira vs. Jack Miller
-106
Maverick Vinales vs. Miguel Oliveira
-115
Jorge Martin vs. Brad Binder
-110
Augusto Fernandez vs. Takaaki Nakagami
-138
Expert Pick for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
After a stellar performance in India, Jorge Martín has showcased not only his race pace but also his ability to capitalize on others’ mistakes. Riding a Ducati, which has been dominant this season, Martín’s continuous closing of the points gap indicates his escalating form. With only a 13-point deficit to the leader, Bagnaia, Martín will be extra motivated to bridge this gap. Given his +413 odds, this pick offers a valuable combination of likelihood and return, making it an enticing choice for the Japan GP.
Where to Bet on the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Ready to stake your claim for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan? Visit our affiliated sportsbooks and review the most up-to-date odds and special offers before making your selection.
The imminent race at the Mobility Resort Motegi is set to be an adrenaline-charged spectacle for MotoGP fans and bettors alike. Whether you’re supporting the established frontrunners or placing faith in the underdogs, prepare for an exhilarating blend of world-class racing and compelling betting opportunities.
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Francesco “Pecco” Bagnaia’s Brazilian weekend was defined by two crashes and a DNF. A Q2 crash early in the weekend left him with a lower-grip backup Ducati and a compromised starting position (he qualified and started 11th).
In the shortened 23-lap Goiânia GP he crashed again on lap 11 while trailing Fermin Aldeguer at Turn 1 — the second crash of the weekend and his first DNF of the season.
After the race he said, “I was just trying to hang on; I couldn’t stay on the bike,” that he had been “trying to survive,” and that he felt “at the mercy of what the bike was doing.”
At Sepang’s first preseason test, Ducati’s Francesco Bagnaia reported an immediate improvement on the new GP26, citing notably better braking and corner-entry confidence after a difficult 2025 season. He ran a radical aerodynamic fairing that showed both advantages and drawbacks but produced lap times broadly similar to the older bodywork, giving the team useful comparative data for ongoing development. Bagnaia and Alex Márquez spent much of the day on long runs with used tires to assess race pace, and the squad planned a sprint simulation the next day, followed by a full race simulation on day three. The opening work built on an encouraging Valencia post-season test and left Bagnaia cautiously optimistic while warning against reading too much into a single day.
Marc Márquez set the early benchmark with a 1:57.018 while managing limits as he recovers from a right-shoulder issue, and Bagnaia ultimately placed eighth, roughly seven-tenths off that time. Ducati’s focus in Sepang was clearly on usable setup and tire feedback rather than outright sheet positions, with Bagnaia emphasizing that the team needs to better understand how new parts behave before converting test pace into race advantage. The broader test painted a mixed picture across the paddock. Yamaha’s V4 was reported to be short on power, turning, traction, and electronics, and Fabio Quartararo was later ruled out of part of the program with a finger injury. On the contrary, Alex Rins and Jack Miller struck a more positive tone about Yamaha development. Early signs from Aprilia, KTM, and Honda were encouraging through riders such as Lorenzo Savadori, Pedro Acosta, Luca Marini, and Joan Mir, even as rookies and regulars worked through setups and recoveries.
Off-track, the opening test intensified contract-year and transfer speculation. Bagnaia is in a 2027 contract year and acknowledged that impending regulation changes have helped create a lively market. Reports linked Ducati with interest in Pedro Acosta for a factory seat and indicated the factory is close to finalizing a new deal with Marc Márquez, developments that feed uncertainty around other riders’ futures. Several pieces of coverage noted that a strong return to consistent podium form by Bagnaia would complicate any premature assumptions about incoming stars, and Ducati will use the remainder of preseason testing to firm up the GP26’s setup and aerodynamic package. Overall, the Sepang opener left Ducati with encouraging technical signs and a clearer roadmap for evaluation, even as the paddock begins to reshuffle around the new rules.
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Best Bets: 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan Pre-Event Odds
Table of Contents
Schedule and How to Watch the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Best Bets and Picks for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Top Picks and Bets
Outsider Picks
Head-To-Head Picks
Expert Pick for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Where to Bet on the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Related Posts
Trailing Aldeguer at Turn 1, Bagnaia crashes out on lap 11
Francesco “Pecco” Bagnaia’s Brazilian weekend was defined by two crashes and a DNF. A Q2 crash early in the weekend left him with a lower-grip backup Ducati and a compromised starting position (he qualified and started 11th).
In the shortened 23-lap Goiânia GP he crashed again on lap 11 while trailing Fermin Aldeguer at Turn 1 — the second crash of the weekend and his first DNF of the season.
After the race he said, “I was just trying to hang on; I couldn’t stay on the bike,” that he had been “trying to survive,” and that he felt “at the mercy of what the bike was doing.”
Bagnaia Reports Brake Boost, Confidence on Ducati GP26
At Sepang’s first preseason test, Ducati’s Francesco Bagnaia reported an immediate improvement on the new GP26, citing notably better braking and corner-entry confidence after a difficult 2025 season. He ran a radical aerodynamic fairing that showed both advantages and drawbacks but produced lap times broadly similar to the older bodywork, giving the team useful comparative data for ongoing development. Bagnaia and Alex Márquez spent much of the day on long runs with used tires to assess race pace, and the squad planned a sprint simulation the next day, followed by a full race simulation on day three. The opening work built on an encouraging Valencia post-season test and left Bagnaia cautiously optimistic while warning against reading too much into a single day.
Marc Márquez set the early benchmark with a 1:57.018 while managing limits as he recovers from a right-shoulder issue, and Bagnaia ultimately placed eighth, roughly seven-tenths off that time. Ducati’s focus in Sepang was clearly on usable setup and tire feedback rather than outright sheet positions, with Bagnaia emphasizing that the team needs to better understand how new parts behave before converting test pace into race advantage. The broader test painted a mixed picture across the paddock. Yamaha’s V4 was reported to be short on power, turning, traction, and electronics, and Fabio Quartararo was later ruled out of part of the program with a finger injury. On the contrary, Alex Rins and Jack Miller struck a more positive tone about Yamaha development. Early signs from Aprilia, KTM, and Honda were encouraging through riders such as Lorenzo Savadori, Pedro Acosta, Luca Marini, and Joan Mir, even as rookies and regulars worked through setups and recoveries.
Off-track, the opening test intensified contract-year and transfer speculation. Bagnaia is in a 2027 contract year and acknowledged that impending regulation changes have helped create a lively market. Reports linked Ducati with interest in Pedro Acosta for a factory seat and indicated the factory is close to finalizing a new deal with Marc Márquez, developments that feed uncertainty around other riders’ futures. Several pieces of coverage noted that a strong return to consistent podium form by Bagnaia would complicate any premature assumptions about incoming stars, and Ducati will use the remainder of preseason testing to firm up the GP26’s setup and aerodynamic package. Overall, the Sepang opener left Ducati with encouraging technical signs and a clearer roadmap for evaluation, even as the paddock begins to reshuffle around the new rules.
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Motor racing is back and it all starts in the “Land of Smiles” on Friday, February 28th. Defending Rider’s Champion Jorge Martin sits on the sidelines for at least the first two races of the campaign after suffering multiple fractures during a recent training ride. With that breaking news out of the way, here is …