Best Bets: MotoAmerica Superbikes at New Jersey 2024 Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Top Picks and Bets

While still an outside shot for the title at +234, Cameron Beaubier has to be considered the favorite to leave Jersey with the most hardware. The Tytlers Cycle Racing ace is riding a tidal wave with 3 wins and 3 seconds in his last seven outings. Beaubier has been in absolute lockstep with his BMW M 1000 RR and NJMP’s fast, flowing corners should allow him to uncork its full potential. Cam’s odds are favorable for a rider with serious momentum and multiple past wins in Jersey.

Points leader Josh Herrin at +307 has been the picture of consistency but showed some cracks at COTA, barely staving off a hard-charging Beaubier. Herrin just needs two drama-free races to secure the title he’s led most of the year. But the pressure of trying to end an 11-year championship drought can do funny things. Herrin’s instinct is to fight up front but this time discretion may be the wiser choice. Either way, fireworks are guaranteed.

+437 seems like an insult for a rider of Sean Dylan Kelly‘s caliber fresh off his maiden Superbike win. Recency bias aside, SDK is still a class rookie and needs to prove COTA wasn’t a fluke. But his aggressive riding style and Moto2 experience should translate well to NJMP’s fast, technical layout. With the pressure off, don’t be shocked if Kelly bags another win or two.

Outsider Picks

Odds of +701 look juicy for Wrench Motorcycles’ Bobby Fong compared to his outright speed. The Californian led the points early and bagged two wins but has gone ice cold with no podiums in his last seven starts. Historically, Fong runs well at NJMP, including some prior Superstock wins. If he can rediscover his early season magic, a podium or two certainly seems within reach.

It’s easy to forget Warhorse HSBK Racing Ducati’s Loris Baz is still chasing his first MotoAmerica Superbike win. At +1120, the lanky Frenchman is a bit of a forgotten man but he’s quietly racked up nine top fives on the season. Baz has really gelled with the Panigale V4 R and his Euro experience means he should adapt quickly to the revised NJMP layout. He’s hungry and these are great odds for a rider of his caliber.

Cameron Petersen‘s 2024 can best be described as feast or famine with three wins but a bunch of crashes and lowly finishes. At +1244, there’s a ton of variance but his upside is very real. When the Attack Performance Yamaha man keeps it on two wheels, he’s as fast as anyone, evidenced by his 11 top fives and six podiums. If Petersen has his head on straight, he certainly has a puncher’s chance.

Expert Pick for Superbike

Cameron Beaubier (+234) gets the nod for New Jersey. The Californian has been on a tear and his riding style is tailor-made for NJMP’s fast, flowing layout. With nothing to lose, look for Beaubier to come out swinging and dominate the weekend as he aims to keep his title hopes alive.

Superbike H2H

Supersport

Top Picks and Bets

After two costly crashes in the last three races, PJ Jacobsen at -135 is still an odds-on favorite for the Supersport title but it’s far from a done deal. The Rahal Ducati Moto ace has totaled six wins this season and still has the speed edge over archrival Mathew Scholtz. But self-inflicted wounds have kept it close. There’s no margin for error left. Jacobsen needs to sweep both races and hope Scholtz stumbles. High drama awaits.

On paper, Mathew Scholtz has done everything to position himself for a third straight title. With a 39-point lead and a league best eight wins, oddsmakers at +168 still don’t like his chances. Scholtz just needs to keep his nose clean and stay in the frame while Jacobsen needs help. The South African has never been flashy but his consistency is championship-caliber. This one may not follow the script.

Young gun Tyler Scott has really made some noise in his first Supersport season with a win and four podiums. The oddsmakers still aren’t sold at +1732 and you can’t blame them as the title is realistically a two horse race. But if the Vision Wheel M4 ECSTAR Suzuki rider can keep his GSX-R750 pointing straight, he has more than enough pace to play spoiler and land on the box. He’s worth a flyer.

Outsider Picks

While they aren’t title contenders, Stefano Mesa, Jake Lewis and Blake Davis all sit within striking distance of a top three points finish. At +2610, they sport identical odds but bring vastly different strengths to the table.

Mesa has been quietly impressive at times on the Tytlers Cycle Yamaha with very consistent performances. Davis has flashed serious speed with nine top fives but is still chasing that maiden win for N2 Racing. Lewis is the most experienced hand with wins in multiple classes but is still adapting to the SBK paddock on his Altus Suzuki after several years in Europe.

It’s a tossup as to who emerges from this scrap in third, but any of these three have the chops to pick off a podium. Mesa gets the expert nod based on his 2023 NJMP win and third overall last season. He tends to come on strong at the end of the year. Don’t sleep on him at these odds.

Expert Pick for Supersport

Mathew Scholtz (+168) is the pick to emerge from New Jersey with one hand on the title. The South African veteran is a master at managing pressure and will use his considerable NJMP experience to keep PJ Jacobsen at bay. Scholtz doesn’t need to win, but expect him to ride smart and minimize mistakes.

Supersport H2H

King of the Baggers

Top Picks and Bets

The stage is set for a Baggers battle royale between rivals Kyle Wyman and Tyler Herfoss. At +119, defending champ Wyman is a slight favorite, based largely on his wealth of track knowledge at his home crib of NJMP. The H-D Factory ace has been coolly consistent all year, trading wins with Herfoss while avoiding any catastrophic results. Wyman knows exactly what he needs to do and will be tough to topple.

But don’t expect challenger Tyler Herfoss to go down without a fight. At +147, the Aussie has matched Wyman blow for blow in his rookie season. While NJMP may be foreign terrain, the repaved surface and Herfoss’ adaptability negate some of Wyman’s home track advantage. In his first go on the beastly Indian Challenger, Herfoss is a bit of a phenom. Watching these two trade paint for the title will be worth the price of admission alone.

Hayden Gillim comes in as a distant third choice at +810 which may be somewhat underselling the 2023 champ. The RevZilla Harley-Davidson man has been a tick off the lead duo’s pace but tends to shine brightest in high pressure moments. Gillim still has an outside shot at second overall and would like nothing more than to play spoiler. He’s worth a podium flyer at these odds.

Outsider Picks

Gillim’s young teammate Rocco Landers is coming off his first career Baggers triumph in COTA race one and would love to double down in Jersey at +1572 odds. The 19 year old has a perfect mix of youthful exuberance and raw talent to move the needle. He’s also got a bit of a wild streak that seems to jive with the Baggers ethos. Don’t be surprised if Landers bags another board or two before the season is over.

Tyler O’Hara at +2363 has championship level talent but has struggled to get the new bike to work for him this season. That said, the popular Californian is known for peaking at the end of the year and has a special connection with NJMP. His smooth riding style and years of setup knowledge could bear fruit at a track with a little of everything. The odds are tasty for an upset podium from the Mission Foods backed machine.

And at truly long odds of +2413, don’t completely write off wildcard entry Bobby Fong on the Roland Sands Design Indian Challenger. The Californian sprint specialist subbed for the injured Kyle Wyman on the factory Harley at Laguna with admirable results. Fong is the ultimate hired gun and has the swagger to measure up well against the Baggers elite if the team gets the setup in the window. A longshot, sure, but one that could pay handsomely with a bit of Jersey luck.

Expert Pick for Baggers

Kyle Wyman (+119) is the clear favorite at his home track. The Harley-Davidson factory ace has an encyclopedic knowledge of NJMP and his smooth, consistent riding style is a perfect match for the big Twin. Wyman is a man on a mission and should be able to fend off Herfoss to extend his points lead.

Baggers H2H

Where to Bet on MotoAm Superbikes at New Jersey

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