Best Bets: MotoAmerica Superbikes at Texas 2024 Pre-Event Odds Analysis

At +233, championship leader Josh Herrin has to be considered the Superbike favorite heading to COTA. The Ducati ace has been in red-hot form, winning three in a row and four of the last five. Herrin’s smooth yet aggressive style should suit the technical COTA layout. He also boasts an enviable record in Austin with wins in 2019 and 2023. Momentum, historical success, and a package firing on all cylinders make Herrin a smart bet for more champagne showers.

But don’t count out Cameron Beaubier at +338. Sure, the Tytlers Cycle Racing star sits 60 points adrift of Herrin. But the five-time champ has been building serious steam since returning from injury, notching four podiums and a win in the last four races. The fast, flowing sections at COTA are tailor-made for Beaubier to uncork the BMW M 1000 RR’s prodigious top-end. He also holds the Superbike lap record in Texas. If Beaubier rediscovers his frontrunning form, he could easily make it a hat trick of wins.

Wrench Motorcycles’ Bobby Fong rounds out the top picks at +448. Fong has faded a bit after a strong mid-season but still ranks second in points. While yet to win at COTA, the gritty Californian snagged a podium there last year and his riding style seems to gel with the track’s hard braking zones. Fong is a fighter and with the title likely out of reach, look for him to swing big and go for broke in pursuit of victories.

Outsider Picks

If you’re searching for solid outsider picks for an upset Superbike win, give Cameron Petersen and Loris Baz a hard look at +654 and +752 respectively. Petersen has had an up-and-down season but flashed serious speed in his three wins. The young South African could be primed to bounce back after some woes at Mid-Ohio and is more than capable of mixing it up with the factory boys on his day.

Baz meanwhile, sits seventh in points but that’s more a reflection of some tough luck than ultimate pace. The lanky Frenchman has repeatedly shown he can match his Warhorse HSBK Racing Ducati teammate Herrin’s speed, as evidenced by several speedy laps while shadowing him at Mid-Ohio. Armed with a well-sorted Ducati and looking to rebound from a race one crash last time out, Baz may be poised to play spoiler.

Petersen’s teammate JD Beach at +1199 could also be a sneaky pick to at least land on the box. The former dirt tracker has really found his mojo on the M 1000 RR lately with three podiums in the last five races, including a third at Mid-Ohio. These odds look juicy for a rider of Beach’s caliber who seems to be building confidence each time out.

Expert Pick for Superbike

With three straight wins and a 52-point lead, Josh Herrin is riding a tidal wave of momentum into Texas. The savvy veteran has been unflappable under pressure this season, a trait that should serve him well in the cauldron of a three-race weekend. Look for the Warhorse HSBK Racing Ducati ace to maintain his stranglehold on the championship and possibly even lock up the title if things break his way.

Superbike H2H

Supersport

Top Picks and Bets

Mathew Scholtz at +105 leads the Supersport title chase by 25 points and ranks as the odds-on favorite to claim victory at COTA. The Strack Racing rider bounced back from some shaky recent outings with a pivotal win last weekend at Mid-Ohio. Scholtz is a proven winner with seven triumphs already this season. When he’s on song, his Yamaha R6 is usually the bike to beat.

But PJ Jacobsen has been coming on like a freight train with three wins in his last four starts. At +152, the New Yorker looks to have all the tools to give Scholtz a serious run for his money. The Rahal Ducati Moto Panigale V2 has been mighty fast in Jacobsen’s hands, allowing him to slice into Scholtz’s points lead. If Jacobsen can maintain his scorching mid-season form, the battle for Supersport supremacy in Texas should be an absolute barnburner.

18-year-old Tyler Scott has really turned heads this season. The Vision Wheel M4 ECSTAR Suzuki rider already has a win under his belt and ranks third in the standings. At +1064, Scott’s odds are long but he’s proven his pace is no fluke. The Suzuki GSX-R750 seems to be a rocket in a straight line which bodes well for gobbling up real estate on COTA’s long back straight. Don’t be shocked if the plucky youngster bags another podium or even steals a win.

Outsider Picks

The season-long Supersport title fight may be a two-horse race but Blake Davis, Corey Alexander, and Stefano Mesa all have the tools to shake things up on any given weekend. Davis has been a revelation on the N2 Racing Yamaha R6 with several podiums. At +2204, the lanky Aussie is a sleeper pick to spray some champagne.

Alexander won the COTA Supersport round last year and has found new life lately on the Toce Racing Yamaha. These generous +2220 odds seem to underestimate Alexander’s outright speed and racecraft. Don’t be stunned if he ends up right in the mix.

Mesa meanwhile, probably isn’t a serious victory threat but the Colombian is more than capable of sneaking a podium finish if things get wild. At +2511 to win, a small podium wager on the Tytlers Cycle Racing rider could prove fruitful, especially if attrition becomes a factor.

Expert Pick for Supersport

PJ Jacobsen has been on an absolute tear lately with three wins in his last four starts. The New Yorker’s combination of raw speed and racecraft make him a serious threat to knock off title rival Mathew Scholtz. At +152, Jacobsen’s odds look like solid value for a rider who seems to have found the sweet spot on his Rahal Ducati Moto Panigale V2.

Supersport H2H

King of the Baggers

Top Picks and Bets

The Mission King of the Baggers class has been a heavyweight slugfest all season between S&S/Indian Motorcycle’s Troy Herfoss and Harley-Davidson Factory Racing’s Kyle Wyman. At +145, Herfoss is a slight favorite over Wyman at +166 to come out on top at COTA. The Aussie has really found his groove lately, winning last time out at Mid-Ohio. Herfoss’ riding style seems to mesh with the Indian Motorcycle’s unique characteristics, allowing him to extract every ounce of performance.

But Wyman is a bulldog and will be chomping at the bit to re-assert himself in Texas. He may have gotten nipped at Mid-Ohio but still holds a narrow nine-point lead in the standings. The defending champ’s combination of aggression and tactical savvy always make him a serious victory threat. Expect these two to bang fairings from the green to the checkers in pursuit of Baggers glory.

At +639, Hayden Gillim may be a cut below the lead duo but looks like smart money for a podium bet. The Kentuckian has really come on strong in his first season on the RevZilla/Motul/Vance & Hines Harley-Davidson and was nipping at Wyman’s heels in Ohio. Another rostrum finish certainly seems attainable.

Outsider Picks

While they may lack the ultimate pace of the top three, Tyler O’Hara, James Rispoli, and Rocco Landers all warrant a look for upset podium bets at fairly lucrative odds.

O’Hara‘s season has been a mixed bag but his talent is unquestioned. At +1705, he has the experience and guile to capitalize if the lead pack falters. The second S&S/Indian Motorcycle entry can never be counted out.

Rispoli is a fan favorite and has really been riding the wheels off his Harley-Davidson lately to rank fifth in points. The +1857 odds on the New Hampshire native seems a bit of a slap in the face for a rider who has been sniffing the podium all season.

Landers, meanwhile, has taken to the big bikes like a duck to water as a rookie in the class. His odds to win are a bit far fetched at +2147 but the 19-year-old is a demon on the brakes which could come in handy navigating COTA’s many tight hairpins. Don’t be shocked to see Landers in the mix.

Expert Pick for Baggers

Troy Herfoss gets the nod as our Expert Pick over archrival Kyle Wyman in the battle for Baggers supremacy. The Aussie has really hit his stride on the S&S/Indian Motorcycle, edging Wyman last time out at Mid-Ohio. Expect these two to leave it all on the track but for Herfoss to emerge victorious if he can keep his nose clean.

Baggers H2H