F1 Japanese Grand Prix Betting Nuggets & Trends

The Track

The Japanese Grand Prix has the tightest track (Suzuka Circuit) of the season so far after races in Australia (Albert Park Grand Prix Circuit) and China (Shanghai International Circuit), and its fast corners result in fewer overtakes because of less braking.

Little Movement

The best number that shows the lack of overtakes on the Suzuka Circuit is that six of the last seven pole winners have won the race (Japan did not race in 2020 or ’21). Mercedes’ Valtteri Bottas won in 2019 after starting in third behind Ferrari drivers Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc.

Since ’19, drivers who have started second have never won the race but have always finished on the podium besides Leclerc in ’19 when he started second and finished in sixth. Since 2015, 76% of top-five qualifiers have finished in the top five and 80% of top-three qualifiers finished in the top three.

Driver Shakeup

Red Bull shook up its team ahead of the upcoming race, swapping Japanese native Yuki Tsunoda for Liam Lawson alongside Max Verstappen.

Lawson, 23, crashed out in the Australian GP before qualifying for last place in the China Sprint and GP. He told reporters he was not expecting a change this early in the season but is focusing on “making the most of this opportunity now and still being in Formula 1.”

He’ll return to the Racing Bulls alongside rookie Isack Hadjar. Draft Kings offers a “Winner Without” market featuring the drivers outside of the big four and Lawson comes in at +285 to win out of that group.

Red Bull vs. McLaren

McLaren’s Lando Norris (Australian GP) and Oscar Piastri (Chinese GP) won the first two races of the season but look out for Verstappen this week.

Verstappen, whose 36 points this season trail Norris’ 44 for the top spot in the standings, finished second and fourth in the first two races, respectively. He’s won the last three Japanese GP and has started from the pole in each.

His odds to the podium are -125, but Red Bull’s double top-six finish comes in at +165.

Don’t Sleep on Ferrari

Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc were each disqualified from the Chinese Grand Prix after a promising start.

Hamilton won the Sprint leading up to the race but qualified for fifth with Leclerc one spot behind in sixth. After then finishing fifth and sixth, respectively, they were disqualified. Leclerc’s car was underweight and Hamilton’s rear skid block did not meet the minimum thickness required.

Hamilton, though, is one of the most successful drivers in Japan. His five wins (most recently 2018) are the most among active drivers and one short of Michael Shumacher’s record.

Hamilton set the lap record in 2019 and had the fourth-fastest lap last year, although this will be his first time racing Suzuka with Ferrari.

Expert Pick

Leclerc at +650 is our favorite longshot to win the pole. His average race-to-qualifying ratio comes in at just over 1.5, which is second behind Carlos Sainz.