F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Betting Nuggets & Trends

The Track

The Jeddah Corniche Circuit presents a sharp contrast to last week’s Bahrain International Circuit. This week’s track is tighter, with high-speed corners, rapid changes of direction and long flat-out sections compared to Bahrain’s three drag-reduction-system zones. Expect a different style of racing in Saudi Arabia.

Qualifying Matters — A Lot

Qualifying positions are more predictive here than at most other circuits. Only Red Bull’s Max Verstappen has made podium from outside the top three qualifying positions — he finished second in 2023 after he started P15 and he went from P 4 to P1 in ’22.

Since 2021, top-three qualifiers have stayed on the podium 83.3% of the time. Pole qualifiers have made podium 75% of the time and 75% of top-five qualifiers finished in the top five.

Rebound for Verstappen

Verstappen is coming off his worst performance of the season — _P6 in Bahrain — after starting seventh. He reported issues with his brakes and Red Bull’s light system failed to work during his first pit stop.

“We had a poor start,” Verstappen said this week. “Too much wheelspin when I dropped the clutch, and then the first stint again [I had] basically the same problems that I had in Qualifying, plus we were just overheating our tires too much compared to the competition ahead of us.”

We expect Red Bull to rebound since tire ware shouldn’t be an issue this week and Verstappen has been successful in Saudi Arabia the last four years. He won the race in 2022 and ’24 while he finished P2 in 2021 and 2023.

He comes in at +105 to make podium and is our favorite longshot to win the race at +1100.

Don’t Sleep on Mercedes

We haven’t written a lot about Mercedes this year, but George Russell and Kimi Antonelli are racing well. Their 93 combined points are the second most among teammates behind McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri (151). Russell is No. 4 in the standings after four races with 63 points and Antonelli’s 30 points rank No. 6.

Russell had his best race of the season in Bahrain and finished P2. He’s made podium in three of the four races this season — he finished P5 in Japan.

Mercedes double top-six finish comes in at -125.

McLaren vs. McLaren

McLaren has been off to a hot start this season as Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are the only drivers with 70+ points. Norris’ 77 points lead the standings and Piastri’s 74 are second.

Piastri is coming off his second win of the season in Bahrain (he also won in China), while Norris grabbed third.

Betting on McLaren is usually a tossup, but the market favors Piastri this week given he’s outperformed Norris on the Jeddah Corniche Circuit each of the last two races. Piastri finished P4 in 2024 and P15 in ’23 while Norris came in at P8 and P17.

Piastri to win at +110 is the best McLaren bet.