The roar of engines and the scent of burnt rubber at Buddh International Circuit are now behind us as the Grand Prix of India crowned Marco Bezzecchi the winner, in a race that heightened tensions in the title chase. Ducati reigned supreme with Bezzecchi and Jorge Martín claiming the top spots, while Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo secured third. A significant narrative was Pecco Bagnaia’s loss of vital championship points, narrowing the gap to a mere 13 points between him and the ever-persistent Martín.
Repsol Honda Team, traditionally strong contenders, faced a challenging weekend. Marc Márquez, despite his commendable grit after a crash, finished ninth. Meanwhile, Joan Mir showcased a surge of improvement, finishing fifth and setting an optimistic tone for Honda as they approach their home Grand Prix in Japan.
Now, we turn our sights to Japan. Mobility Resort Motegi awaits the riders, a circuit filled with its own unique challenges and stories. As the championship fight intensifies, the Grand Prix of Japan promises exhilarating racing and an intriguing contest for bettors. The question looms – can Ducati maintain their dominance, or will another team rise to challenge the Italian giants? Stay with us as we dive deep into odds, analyses, and the top picks for the Japanese showdown.
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Schedule and How to Watch the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
The Twin Ring Motegi is abuzz with anticipation, readying itself for a series of riveting MotoGP events from September 29th to October 1st. It’s all leading up to the crowning glory: the Grand Prix of Japan. For a detailed view of the weekend’s events, refer to the official schedule. For enthusiasts who can’t be at the venue in person, be sure to check the official MotoGP website for viewing options. (Note: While live broadcasts might be limited in certain regions, including the US, you can still catch comprehensive race highlights and updates on the website!) If betting is on your agenda, don’t forget to follow the live action and keep an eye on NXTbets for updates on odds and prices.
Best Bets and Picks for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
With a range of betting options available, from Event Winner to Head-to-Head bets, bettors are presented with a wide spectrum of wagering opportunities. Here are our top picks and dark horse selections for this event:
Top Picks and Bets
Driver
Event Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Francesco Bagnaia
+317
$83.40
Jorge Martin
+413
$102.60
Marco Bezzecchi
+525
$125.00
Brad Binder
+999
$219.80
Fabio Quartararo
+1063
$232.60
Leading the odds is Francesco Bagnaia, and rightly so. His consistent season and being the current championship leader place him in good stead, but the recent setback at the Indian GP could play on his mind, especially with teammate Jorge Martin snapping at his heels.
Jorge Martin, with odds of +413, has been a revelation this season. Having inched to within 13 points of Bagnaia’s standings lead with his 2nd place finish at the Indian GP, he showcases momentum and determination, proving that he is not just in the fight but a genuine threat to the championship.
Marco Bezzecchi, fresh from his victory lap in India, comes into Motegi with a shot of confidence. His odds reflect not just his recent win but also a season where he has consistently been a podium threat.
Brad Binder and Fabio Quartararo, both offering longer odds, are wild cards in this race. Binder’s consistency places him fourth in the general standings, while Quartararo, despite being further down the odds list, has shown he can clinch podium finishes. Both riders have the capability to upset the perceived hierarchy and throw in a twist at Motegi.
Outsider Picks
Driver
Event Winner Odds
Payout on $20
Marc Marquez
+1438
$307.60
Johann Zarco
+1438
$307.60
Aleix Espargaro
+1718
$363.60
Marc Marquez, with odds of +1438, may not have had his best season, but his reputation as a multi-time world champion precedes him. Motegi’s technical nature, combined with Marquez’s penchant for late braking and aggressive cornering, makes him a formidable contender. Despite his unfortunate slip in India, his ability to swiftly climb back and finish ninth demonstrates the Spaniard’s indomitable spirit and resilience.
Johann Zarco, possessing the same odds as Marquez, has had flashes of brilliance this season. Racing for Ducati, a machine that has been dominant throughout, there’s always the possibility that Zarco finds the sweet spot with the setup and emerges as a surprising frontrunner. His consistent performances and occasional podium finishes give weight to this speculation.
Aleix Espargaro‘s +1718 odds might make him the lengthiest shot of the trio, but the Aprilia rider has been in the form of his life. The bike’s notable performance improvements combined with Espargaro’s vast experience mean he could exploit any weaknesses in the favorites, especially if unpredictable conditions level the playing field. With the nature of MotoGP being as unpredictable as it is, dismissing any of these outsiders would be unwise.
Head-To-Head Picks
For the imminent duel at the Motegi’s Mobility Resort, anticipation is at fever pitch as numerous matchups are set to captivate and enthrall. Weighing in on recent performances, past records at this Japanese circuit, and its distinct challenges, we’ve spotlighted some of the most electrifying head-to-head confrontations poised to unfold at the Grand Prix of Japan:
Matchup
(Favorite in Bold)
Winner Odds
Joan Mir vs. Franco Morbidelli
-104
Fabio Quartararo vs. Marc Marquez
-122
Johann Zarco vs. Marc Marquez
-102
Miguel Oliveira vs. Jack Miller
-106
Maverick Vinales vs. Miguel Oliveira
-115
Jorge Martin vs. Brad Binder
-110
Augusto Fernandez vs. Takaaki Nakagami
-138
Expert Pick for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
After a stellar performance in India, Jorge Martín has showcased not only his race pace but also his ability to capitalize on others’ mistakes. Riding a Ducati, which has been dominant this season, Martín’s continuous closing of the points gap indicates his escalating form. With only a 13-point deficit to the leader, Bagnaia, Martín will be extra motivated to bridge this gap. Given his +413 odds, this pick offers a valuable combination of likelihood and return, making it an enticing choice for the Japan GP.
Where to Bet on the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Ready to stake your claim for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan? Visit our affiliated sportsbooks and review the most up-to-date odds and special offers before making your selection.
The imminent race at the Mobility Resort Motegi is set to be an adrenaline-charged spectacle for MotoGP fans and bettors alike. Whether you’re supporting the established frontrunners or placing faith in the underdogs, prepare for an exhilarating blend of world-class racing and compelling betting opportunities.
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Aprilia’s early-season surge has become the defining story heading into the Americas Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas. Marco Bezzecchi leads the MotoGP championship after winning the Grands Prix in Thailand and Brazil, and Aprilia produced a 1-2 in Brazil with teammate Jorge Martín second; that Brazil 1-2 moved Martín into second overall and leaves Aprilia riders occupying four of the top seven championship positions. Reports from Brazil credited Aprilia’s setup, consistency and race management as decisive factors as the title fight unfolds.
That momentum makes COTA a key test for Marc Márquez and his Ducati team. The reigning world champion — a seven-time winner at the Circuit of the Americas — has shown strong sprint pace (he won the Brazil sprint and was second in the Thailand sprint) but has not reached a Sunday MotoGP podium so far this season and sits fifth in the standings. Márquez arrives in Austin after two recent Grand Prix crashes, and Ducati has struggled early in the year to place a Desmosedici on an overall podium; pundits see this weekend as a pivotal chance to judge whether Márquez can rebound and whether Aprilia’s early surge represents a lasting shift in the balance of power.
At Sepang’s first preseason test, Ducati’s Francesco Bagnaia reported an immediate improvement on the new GP26, citing notably better braking and corner-entry confidence after a difficult 2025 season. He ran a radical aerodynamic fairing that showed both advantages and drawbacks but produced lap times broadly similar to the older bodywork, giving the team useful comparative data for ongoing development. Bagnaia and Alex Márquez spent much of the day on long runs with used tires to assess race pace, and the squad planned a sprint simulation the next day, followed by a full race simulation on day three. The opening work built on an encouraging Valencia post-season test and left Bagnaia cautiously optimistic while warning against reading too much into a single day.
Marc Márquez set the early benchmark with a 1:57.018 while managing limits as he recovers from a right-shoulder issue, and Bagnaia ultimately placed eighth, roughly seven-tenths off that time. Ducati’s focus in Sepang was clearly on usable setup and tire feedback rather than outright sheet positions, with Bagnaia emphasizing that the team needs to better understand how new parts behave before converting test pace into race advantage. The broader test painted a mixed picture across the paddock. Yamaha’s V4 was reported to be short on power, turning, traction, and electronics, and Fabio Quartararo was later ruled out of part of the program with a finger injury. On the contrary, Alex Rins and Jack Miller struck a more positive tone about Yamaha development. Early signs from Aprilia, KTM, and Honda were encouraging through riders such as Lorenzo Savadori, Pedro Acosta, Luca Marini, and Joan Mir, even as rookies and regulars worked through setups and recoveries.
Off-track, the opening test intensified contract-year and transfer speculation. Bagnaia is in a 2027 contract year and acknowledged that impending regulation changes have helped create a lively market. Reports linked Ducati with interest in Pedro Acosta for a factory seat and indicated the factory is close to finalizing a new deal with Marc Márquez, developments that feed uncertainty around other riders’ futures. Several pieces of coverage noted that a strong return to consistent podium form by Bagnaia would complicate any premature assumptions about incoming stars, and Ducati will use the remainder of preseason testing to firm up the GP26’s setup and aerodynamic package. Overall, the Sepang opener left Ducati with encouraging technical signs and a clearer roadmap for evaluation, even as the paddock begins to reshuffle around the new rules.
At the Sepang pre‑season test in early February, Yamaha’s new V4 YZR‑M1 program was disrupted by two incidents. Fabio Quartararo crashed late on the opening day at Turn 5, fracturing the middle finger of his right hand. In addition, his bike suffered an unexplained engine/electronics stoppage and was left dead on track, with engineers were unable to determine a definitive cause that evening.
With safety paramount, Yamaha closed its factory and Pramac garages and kept all six Yamaha machines, including those of Quartararo, Alex Rins, Jack Miller, Toprak Razgatlıoğlu, Augusto Fernández, and Andrea Dovizioso in the pits. This gave breathing room to the technical teams from Japan and Italy to carry out on‑site inspections and further factory diagnostics.
Technical director Max Bartolini and team management described the halt as a precaution while they sought confirmation from the factory. Paddock reporting said similar issues had been seen in earlier shakedowns, and some sources suggested overheating as a possible factor; others described the fault as an electronics stoppage, so accounts varied on the precise nature of the failure.
Overnight collaboration between Yamaha’s Italian and Japanese engineers produced a temporary fix that allowed the V4 machines to return to track on the final day of the Sepang test. The bikes were reported to be running with reduced power/RPM as a precaution. On the re‑entry morning Rins, Miller and Razgatlıoğlu completed a combined 74 laps, with Rins the quickest of the trio and 12th overall, 1.178 seconds off the morning pace set by Álex Márquez. Yamaha confirmed Quartararo would not ride again at Sepang and would return to Europe for medical checks. He is expected to target the next test in Buriram on February 21–22.
The interruption cost Yamaha valuable setup and development time on a completely redesigned V4 project introduced in 2025 and intended to run through the 2026 regulations year. Engineers stressed the importance of factory‑validated fixes before resuming full program activity. Team bosses including Paolo Pavesio and Massimo Meregalli said rider safety guided the decision to pause running, while the overnight fix underlined rapid mobilization between Yamaha’s bases to keep the V4 program on schedule. Although running resumed with mitigations, Yamaha’s Sepang test plan remained affected until diagnostics were completed and a clear, safe path forward was confirmed.
Cal Crutchlow will return to MotoGP at the Italian Grand Prix in Mugello as LCR/Honda’s replacement for Johann Zarco, the team confirmed after a Misano test cleared the 40-year-old British rider to race. Zarco was ruled out after a heavy crash in Catalunya/Barcelona that left him with significant knee and ankle injuries and awaiting surgery, a situation LCR described as likely long-term. The move preserves LCR/Honda’s entry while Zarco recovers and addresses an immediate personnel need for the team.
Crutchlow took part in a one-off private test at Misano to assess his physical condition and was given the green light to step into Zarco’s seat for the Mugello round. The Mugello start will be his first MotoGP race since a wildcard outing at the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix and will mark his 180th premier-class start. LCR team principal Lucio Cecchinello had said he wanted to field both LCR bikes at Mugello, and Diogo Moreira currently remains the only fit full-time LCR rider.
The short-term signing follows limited replacement options in the paddock. LCR’s regular test rider Takaaki Nakagami is occupied developing Honda’s 2027 850cc package and is unlikely to be available, and other potential stand-ins such as Aleix Espargaro remain in recovery. Crutchlow previously raced for LCR from 2015 to 2020, won three premier-class Grands Prix and achieved 19 podiums, then moved into a Yamaha test and reserve role with sporadic appearances through 2023. LCR and Honda framed Crutchlow’s return as a temporary solution while Zarco’s medical situation and the timing of any surgery remain unresolved.
Best Bets: 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan Pre-Event Odds
Schedule and How to Watch the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Best Bets and Picks for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Top Picks and Bets
Outsider Picks
Head-To-Head Picks
Expert Pick for the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Where to Bet on the 2023 MotoGP Grand Prix of Japan
Related Posts
COTA to test if Aprilia surge reshapes MotoGP title
Aprilia’s early-season surge has become the defining story heading into the Americas Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas. Marco Bezzecchi leads the MotoGP championship after winning the Grands Prix in Thailand and Brazil, and Aprilia produced a 1-2 in Brazil with teammate Jorge Martín second; that Brazil 1-2 moved Martín into second overall and leaves Aprilia riders occupying four of the top seven championship positions. Reports from Brazil credited Aprilia’s setup, consistency and race management as decisive factors as the title fight unfolds.
That momentum makes COTA a key test for Marc Márquez and his Ducati team. The reigning world champion — a seven-time winner at the Circuit of the Americas — has shown strong sprint pace (he won the Brazil sprint and was second in the Thailand sprint) but has not reached a Sunday MotoGP podium so far this season and sits fifth in the standings. Márquez arrives in Austin after two recent Grand Prix crashes, and Ducati has struggled early in the year to place a Desmosedici on an overall podium; pundits see this weekend as a pivotal chance to judge whether Márquez can rebound and whether Aprilia’s early surge represents a lasting shift in the balance of power.
Bagnaia Reports Brake Boost, Confidence on Ducati GP26
At Sepang’s first preseason test, Ducati’s Francesco Bagnaia reported an immediate improvement on the new GP26, citing notably better braking and corner-entry confidence after a difficult 2025 season. He ran a radical aerodynamic fairing that showed both advantages and drawbacks but produced lap times broadly similar to the older bodywork, giving the team useful comparative data for ongoing development. Bagnaia and Alex Márquez spent much of the day on long runs with used tires to assess race pace, and the squad planned a sprint simulation the next day, followed by a full race simulation on day three. The opening work built on an encouraging Valencia post-season test and left Bagnaia cautiously optimistic while warning against reading too much into a single day.
Marc Márquez set the early benchmark with a 1:57.018 while managing limits as he recovers from a right-shoulder issue, and Bagnaia ultimately placed eighth, roughly seven-tenths off that time. Ducati’s focus in Sepang was clearly on usable setup and tire feedback rather than outright sheet positions, with Bagnaia emphasizing that the team needs to better understand how new parts behave before converting test pace into race advantage. The broader test painted a mixed picture across the paddock. Yamaha’s V4 was reported to be short on power, turning, traction, and electronics, and Fabio Quartararo was later ruled out of part of the program with a finger injury. On the contrary, Alex Rins and Jack Miller struck a more positive tone about Yamaha development. Early signs from Aprilia, KTM, and Honda were encouraging through riders such as Lorenzo Savadori, Pedro Acosta, Luca Marini, and Joan Mir, even as rookies and regulars worked through setups and recoveries.
Off-track, the opening test intensified contract-year and transfer speculation. Bagnaia is in a 2027 contract year and acknowledged that impending regulation changes have helped create a lively market. Reports linked Ducati with interest in Pedro Acosta for a factory seat and indicated the factory is close to finalizing a new deal with Marc Márquez, developments that feed uncertainty around other riders’ futures. Several pieces of coverage noted that a strong return to consistent podium form by Bagnaia would complicate any premature assumptions about incoming stars, and Ducati will use the remainder of preseason testing to firm up the GP26’s setup and aerodynamic package. Overall, the Sepang opener left Ducati with encouraging technical signs and a clearer roadmap for evaluation, even as the paddock begins to reshuffle around the new rules.
Yamaha Keeps Six Riders in Pits Amid Safety Probe
At the Sepang pre‑season test in early February, Yamaha’s new V4 YZR‑M1 program was disrupted by two incidents. Fabio Quartararo crashed late on the opening day at Turn 5, fracturing the middle finger of his right hand. In addition, his bike suffered an unexplained engine/electronics stoppage and was left dead on track, with engineers were unable to determine a definitive cause that evening.
With safety paramount, Yamaha closed its factory and Pramac garages and kept all six Yamaha machines, including those of Quartararo, Alex Rins, Jack Miller, Toprak Razgatlıoğlu, Augusto Fernández, and Andrea Dovizioso in the pits. This gave breathing room to the technical teams from Japan and Italy to carry out on‑site inspections and further factory diagnostics.
Technical director Max Bartolini and team management described the halt as a precaution while they sought confirmation from the factory. Paddock reporting said similar issues had been seen in earlier shakedowns, and some sources suggested overheating as a possible factor; others described the fault as an electronics stoppage, so accounts varied on the precise nature of the failure.
Overnight collaboration between Yamaha’s Italian and Japanese engineers produced a temporary fix that allowed the V4 machines to return to track on the final day of the Sepang test. The bikes were reported to be running with reduced power/RPM as a precaution. On the re‑entry morning Rins, Miller and Razgatlıoğlu completed a combined 74 laps, with Rins the quickest of the trio and 12th overall, 1.178 seconds off the morning pace set by Álex Márquez. Yamaha confirmed Quartararo would not ride again at Sepang and would return to Europe for medical checks. He is expected to target the next test in Buriram on February 21–22.
The interruption cost Yamaha valuable setup and development time on a completely redesigned V4 project introduced in 2025 and intended to run through the 2026 regulations year. Engineers stressed the importance of factory‑validated fixes before resuming full program activity. Team bosses including Paolo Pavesio and Massimo Meregalli said rider safety guided the decision to pause running, while the overnight fix underlined rapid mobilization between Yamaha’s bases to keep the V4 program on schedule. Although running resumed with mitigations, Yamaha’s Sepang test plan remained affected until diagnostics were completed and a clear, safe path forward was confirmed.
Misano test clears Crutchlow for short-term LCR Honda return
Cal Crutchlow will return to MotoGP at the Italian Grand Prix in Mugello as LCR/Honda’s replacement for Johann Zarco, the team confirmed after a Misano test cleared the 40-year-old British rider to race. Zarco was ruled out after a heavy crash in Catalunya/Barcelona that left him with significant knee and ankle injuries and awaiting surgery, a situation LCR described as likely long-term. The move preserves LCR/Honda’s entry while Zarco recovers and addresses an immediate personnel need for the team.
Crutchlow took part in a one-off private test at Misano to assess his physical condition and was given the green light to step into Zarco’s seat for the Mugello round. The Mugello start will be his first MotoGP race since a wildcard outing at the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix and will mark his 180th premier-class start. LCR team principal Lucio Cecchinello had said he wanted to field both LCR bikes at Mugello, and Diogo Moreira currently remains the only fit full-time LCR rider.
The short-term signing follows limited replacement options in the paddock. LCR’s regular test rider Takaaki Nakagami is occupied developing Honda’s 2027 850cc package and is unlikely to be available, and other potential stand-ins such as Aleix Espargaro remain in recovery. Crutchlow previously raced for LCR from 2015 to 2020, won three premier-class Grands Prix and achieved 19 podiums, then moved into a Yamaha test and reserve role with sporadic appearances through 2023. LCR and Honda framed Crutchlow’s return as a temporary solution while Zarco’s medical situation and the timing of any surgery remain unresolved.