Cycling fans have waited 12 months for the most prestigious Grand Tour in the sport to return, and the wait is finally over. Riders have touched down in Barcelona for the opening stage of the 2026 Tour de France, which gets underway this weekend. Defending Champion Tadej Pogačar leads the pre-event odds after a dominant start to the season. The Slovenian’s perennial rival Jonas Vingegaard lines up in Catalonia on Saturday as the second favorite, with fans expecting another epic duel between the Slovenian and the Dane.
Dive into the best bets and markets for the upcoming Tour from Polymarket in our race preview below.
The world’s best cycling contingent readies itself for an epic journey, starting in Barcelona and climaxing in Paris. Racing gets underway on Saturday, July 4, and lasts 21 stages before the riders arrive on the Champs-Élysée for the final day on Sunday, July 26. You can follow every stage of the 2026 Tour live on Peacock, but check the daily schedule as stage start times vary. The opening day is set to start at 11:00 AM and last approximately two hours.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets & Odds for 2026 Tour de France
Polymarket Odds for the Event Winner
After what Tadej Pogačar has accomplished in this decade, it’s hard to believe he enters this Tour in the prime of his life. The Slovenian is aiming to join an elite group of cyclists who have won cycling’s “Grandest Tour” five times. “Pogi,” as he’s affectionately known, has clinched the yellow jersey in this race four times since 2020, and he’s the favorite to do it again. He arrives in sublime form after capturing this season’s Tour de Suisse, Tour de Romandie, Tour of Flanders, and Strade Bianche titles, to name a few.
Pogačar’s greatest rival in the 2020s, Jonas Vingegaard, is back and hunting his third Tour de France victory. The Dane is in markedly better form and health after injuring himself in the 2025 Paris-Nice race. Vingegaard’s preparations have been far better this time out, racking up three victories, including the Giro D’Italia, Volta a Catalunya and Paris-Nice. He’s offering the best value for money on Polymarket to secure the General Classification. Capping off our GC contenders is Briton Tom Pidcock. However, he started the year hot, securing the Andorra MoraBanc Clàssica, and he backed it up with top honors in the Milan-Torino one-day classic.
swipe to see more
Rider
Odds
Payout on $20
Tadej Pogačar
-285
$27.02
Tom Pidcock
-245
$28.17
Jonas Vingegaard
+223
$64.52
Paul Seixas
+1150
$250.00
Juan Ayuso
+1329
$285.71
Remco Evenepoel
+9900
$2,000.00
Florian Lipowitz
+9900
$2,000.00
Isaac del Toro
+9900
$2,000.00
Cian Uijtdebroeks
+9900
$2,000.00
Mattias Skjelmose
+9900
$2,000.00
Derek Gee-West
+9900
$2,000.00
Ben O'Connor
+9900
$2,000.00
Lennert Van Eetvelt
+9900
$2,000.00
Warren Barguil
+9900
$2,000.00
Antonio Tiberi
+9900
$2,000.00
Adam Yates
+9900
$2,000.00
Kévin Vauquelin
+9900
$2,000.00
Luke Plapp
+9900
$2,000.00
Sepp Kuss
+9900
$2,000.00
Michael Storer
+9900
$2,000.00
Valentin Paret-Peintre
+9900
$2,000.00
Tobias Halland Johannessen
+9900
$2,000.00
Richard Carapaz
+9900
$2,000.00
Matteo Jorgenson
+9900
$2,000.00
Thymen Arensman
+9900
$2,000.00
Jai Hindley
+9900
$2,000.00
Lenny Martinez
+9900
$2,000.00
Ben Healy
+9900
$2,000.00
Egan Bernal
+9900
$2,000.00
Brandon McNulty
+9900
$2,000.00
Matthew Riccitello
+9900
$2,000.00
Ilan Van Wilder
+9900
$2,000.00
Expert Pick
If we consider historic and current form, Tadej Pogačar is the logical choice to bag top honors in the Tour de France. He boasts a 66.7% win rate in the past six editions of this event and has prevailed in six major races already in 2026. Polymarket has the Slovenian at -285 to take the title, translating into potential winnings of $27.02 on a $20.00 wager.
Odds for Green Jersey
Reigning green jersey holder Jonathan Milan will miss the 2026 Tour de France as his team Lidl-Trek throws its weight behind Mads Pedersen in the points classification. The Dane finished third in the Boucles de la Mayenne in the green jersey contest, and backed it up with a fifth-place return in his National Road Championship recently. Pre-race favorite Tadej Pogačar enters with incredibly short odds, after finishing second in this contest in 2025.
Belgian sprinter Jasper Philipsen starts the Tour as one of the in-form riders, fresh off a points and GC victory in the Baloise Belgium Tour. He also registered a triumph in the Copenhagen Sprint In Flanders Field and the Danilith Nokere Koerse. Wrapping up the Green Jersey contenders is Tim Merlier, who offers one of the best value-for-money bets on Polymarket for this category. Merlier topped the points classification in the Tour de Hongrie in May, adding to his earlier triumphs in the Scheldeprijs and Ronde van Limburg.
swipe to see more
Rider
Odds
Payout on $20
Cian Uijtdebroeks
-1329
$21.51
Milan Fretin
-1329
$21.51
Tadej Pogačar
-1329
$21.51
Jonas Vingegaard
-1329
$21.51
Thymen Arensman
-1329
$21.51
Florian Lipowitz
-1329
$21.51
Juan Ayuso
-1329
$21.51
Tobias Halland Johannessen
-1329
$21.51
Ben O'Connor
-1329
$21.51
Mattias Skjelmose
-1150
$21.74
Richard Carapaz
-1150
$21.74
Kévin Vauquelin
-1150
$21.74
Olav Kooij
-1150
$21.74
Matthew Riccitello
-1150
$21.74
Remco Evenepoel
-1150
$21.74
Matteo Jorgenson
-1150
$21.74
Adam Yates
-1150
$21.74
Jai Hindley
-1150
$21.74
Ben Healy
-1150
$21.74
Brandon McNulty
-1150
$21.74
Michael Storer
-1150
$21.74
Warren Barguil
-1150
$21.74
Biniam Girmay
-1150
$21.74
Arnaud De Lie
-1150
$21.74
Dorian Godon
-1150
$21.74
Isaac del Toro
-1150
$21.74
Lenny Martinez
-1150
$21.74
Mads Pedersen
-1150
$21.74
Jasper Philipsen
-1011
$21.98
Lennert Van Eetvelt
-1011
$21.98
Michael Matthews
-1011
$21.98
Paul Seixas
-1011
$21.98
Sepp Kuss
-1011
$21.98
Ilan Van Wilder
-900
$22.22
Antonio Tiberi
-900
$22.22
Luke Plapp
-900
$22.22
Egan Bernal
-809
$22.47
Valentin Paret-Peintre
-733
$22.73
Tom Pidcock
-669
$22.99
Derek Gee-West
-614
$23.26
Tim Merlier
+218
$63.64
Odds for Polka Dot Jersey
The 2025 Polka Dot victor Tadej Pogačar arrives at the start line, expected to challenge for the King of the Mountains classification again. While his main focus remains a fifth Tour de France, he could collect the polka dot accolade along the way. “Pogi’s” rival Jonas Vingegaard is also favored to contest in this category. The Dane settled for second place in the mountain battle in the Giro d’Italia and won the battle during Paris-Nice.
Frenchman Lenny Martinez is back in the saddle after an impressive display in 2025. The youngster fought hard for the polka dot jersey, but had to settle for third behind “Pogi” and Jonas. Martinez is yet to win a King of the Mountains classification this season, but finished third in this contest during the Tour de Suisse.
swipe to see more
Rider
Odds
Payout on $20
Lennert Van Eetvelt
-1567
$21.28
Egan Bernal
-1567
$21.28
Sepp Kuss
-1329
$21.51
Jonas Vingegaard
-1329
$21.51
Tobias Halland Johannessen
-1329
$21.51
Ben O'Connor
-1329
$21.51
Jai Hindley
-1329
$21.51
Valentin Paret-Peintre
-1329
$21.51
Brandon McNulty
-1150
$21.74
Adam Yates
-1150
$21.74
Cian Uijtdebroeks
-1150
$21.74
Kévin Vauquelin
-1011
$21.98
Warren Barguil
-1011
$21.98
Remco Evenepoel
-900
$22.22
Isaac del Toro
-900
$22.22
Juan Ayuso
-900
$22.22
Florian Lipowitz
-809
$22.47
Ilan Van Wilder
-733
$22.73
Thymen Arensman
-669
$22.99
Tom Pidcock
-614
$23.26
Michael Storer
-614
$23.26
Luke Plapp
-614
$23.26
Matteo Jorgenson
-567
$23.53
Derek Gee-West
-426
$24.69
Antonio Tiberi
-376
$25.32
Mattias Skjelmose
-317
$26.32
Matthew Riccitello
-270
$27.40
Paul Seixas
-257
$27.78
Ben Healy
-233
$28.57
Tadej Pogačar
-113
$37.74
Lenny Martinez
-104
$39.22
Richard Carapaz
+104
$40.82
Odds for Winning Nationality
Two Nations sit front of mind when assessing the nationality of the winning rider. They are Slovenia and Denmark. These two countries are the only two to have produced a winning rider in this decade, thanks to Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard. Leading into 2026, Slovenia has captured four Tour de France titles since 2020, while Denmark has two under its belt. While the interest in Briton Tom Pidcock is growing, it’s hard to see the Union Jack being raised at the end of stage 21.
swipe to see more
Nationality
Odds
Payout on $20
Czechia
-100
$40.00
Italy
-100
$40.00
France
-100
$40.00
Kazakhstan
-100
$40.00
USA
-100
$40.00
Denmark
-100
$40.00
Luxembourg
+108
$41.67
Switzerland
+108
$41.67
Slovenia
+108
$41.67
Portugal
+113
$42.55
Mexico
+113
$42.55
Norway
+117
$43.48
Poland
+117
$43.48
Ecuador
+117
$43.48
Austria
+117
$43.48
Latvia
+117
$43.48
Canada
+122
$44.44
Australia
+122
$44.44
Eritrea
+122
$44.44
Germany
+122
$44.44
Colombia
+122
$44.44
Belgium
+122
$44.44
New Zealand
+122
$44.44
Ireland
+127
$45.45
Netherlands
+144
$48.78
Spain
+178
$55.56
Great Britain
+178
$55.56
Margin of Victory Odds
The final betting market provided by Polymarket for the 2026 Tour de France is the margin of victory. Over the last 10 years, only 20% of the winning riders have prevailed by under one minute. Those riders were Tadej Pogačar in 2020 and Chris Froome in 2017. The most common margin of victory in recent years sits between 1:00 and 2:59, with three riders winning by this margin since 2016.
“Pogi” remains the only rider to win a Tour between 5:00 and 6:59 in the past 10 years, a feat he’s achieved on two occasions. Finally, only three riders have clinched the Grandest Tour in Cycling by more than seven minutes since 1997. The most recent came from Jonas Vingegaard in 2023, when he won by 7:29. Overall, if we look at the historical results, the most likely margin of victory is set to be between 1:00 and 4:59.
swipe to see more
Rider
Odds
Payout on $20
Under 1 Minute
-101
$39.81
1:00-2:59
-562
$23.56
3:00 - 4:59
-209
$29.56
5:00 - 6:59
-241
$28.31
>7 Minutes
-816
$22.45
Where to Bet on Tour de France
Bets for the 2026 Tour de France can be placed at our partner sportsbooks, including Polymarket and DraftKings. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbet’s comprehensive Tour de France Betting Guide.
21+ Please refer to Affiliated Operators’ T&C. Void where prohibited. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
If victories were determined by effort, Mathieu van der Poel would be wearing the yellow jersey heading into day 10. The Dutchman broke away from the peloton for most of the race, but was caught inside the final kilometre of the day. There were no other changes to the general classification, King of the Mountains, or …
Another mountain stage has passed, and it was another victory for the “Low Country” and Thymen Arensman. The Dutchman secured his second victory of the race, reaching the summit of the La Plagne climb, just ahead of Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Florian Lipowitz. The young German rider extended his lead over Oscar Onley in …
We couldn’t have asked for a better finish to proceedings than the one we were treated to today. Tadej Pogačar claimed his 100th career stage win and provided a taste of the tussle that is to come with Jonas Vingegaard. Find out what happened below in our 2025 Tour de France Stage 4 report. Bets …
We are up and pedaling in La République for the 112th edition of the world’s most famous cycling race. Riders set off from Lille, and Team Cofidis was the first to capitalize, courtesy of Benjamin Thomas. The Frenchman snatched the first King of the Mountain point and formed part of the breakaway that was eventually …
Best Bets: 2026 Tour de France Pre-Event Odds Analysis
Cycling fans have waited 12 months for the most prestigious Grand Tour in the sport to return, and the wait is finally over. Riders have touched down in Barcelona for the opening stage of the 2026 Tour de France, which gets underway this weekend. Defending Champion Tadej Pogačar leads the pre-event odds after a dominant start to the season. The Slovenian’s perennial rival Jonas Vingegaard lines up in Catalonia on Saturday as the second favorite, with fans expecting another epic duel between the Slovenian and the Dane.
Dive into the best bets and markets for the upcoming Tour from Polymarket in our race preview below.
Schedule and How to Watch Tour de France
The world’s best cycling contingent readies itself for an epic journey, starting in Barcelona and climaxing in Paris. Racing gets underway on Saturday, July 4, and lasts 21 stages before the riders arrive on the Champs-Élysée for the final day on Sunday, July 26. You can follow every stage of the 2026 Tour live on Peacock, but check the daily schedule as stage start times vary. The opening day is set to start at 11:00 AM and last approximately two hours.
Odds Subject to Change
Please note that the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.
Best Bets & Odds for 2026 Tour de France
Polymarket Odds for the Event Winner
After what Tadej Pogačar has accomplished in this decade, it’s hard to believe he enters this Tour in the prime of his life. The Slovenian is aiming to join an elite group of cyclists who have won cycling’s “Grandest Tour” five times. “Pogi,” as he’s affectionately known, has clinched the yellow jersey in this race four times since 2020, and he’s the favorite to do it again. He arrives in sublime form after capturing this season’s Tour de Suisse, Tour de Romandie, Tour of Flanders, and Strade Bianche titles, to name a few.
Pogačar’s greatest rival in the 2020s, Jonas Vingegaard, is back and hunting his third Tour de France victory. The Dane is in markedly better form and health after injuring himself in the 2025 Paris-Nice race. Vingegaard’s preparations have been far better this time out, racking up three victories, including the Giro D’Italia, Volta a Catalunya and Paris-Nice. He’s offering the best value for money on Polymarket to secure the General Classification. Capping off our GC contenders is Briton Tom Pidcock. However, he started the year hot, securing the Andorra MoraBanc Clàssica, and he backed it up with top honors in the Milan-Torino one-day classic.
swipe to see more
Expert Pick
If we consider historic and current form, Tadej Pogačar is the logical choice to bag top honors in the Tour de France. He boasts a 66.7% win rate in the past six editions of this event and has prevailed in six major races already in 2026. Polymarket has the Slovenian at -285 to take the title, translating into potential winnings of $27.02 on a $20.00 wager.
Odds for Green Jersey
Reigning green jersey holder Jonathan Milan will miss the 2026 Tour de France as his team Lidl-Trek throws its weight behind Mads Pedersen in the points classification. The Dane finished third in the Boucles de la Mayenne in the green jersey contest, and backed it up with a fifth-place return in his National Road Championship recently. Pre-race favorite Tadej Pogačar enters with incredibly short odds, after finishing second in this contest in 2025.
Belgian sprinter Jasper Philipsen starts the Tour as one of the in-form riders, fresh off a points and GC victory in the Baloise Belgium Tour. He also registered a triumph in the Copenhagen Sprint In Flanders Field and the Danilith Nokere Koerse. Wrapping up the Green Jersey contenders is Tim Merlier, who offers one of the best value-for-money bets on Polymarket for this category. Merlier topped the points classification in the Tour de Hongrie in May, adding to his earlier triumphs in the Scheldeprijs and Ronde van Limburg.
swipe to see more
Odds for Polka Dot Jersey
The 2025 Polka Dot victor Tadej Pogačar arrives at the start line, expected to challenge for the King of the Mountains classification again. While his main focus remains a fifth Tour de France, he could collect the polka dot accolade along the way. “Pogi’s” rival Jonas Vingegaard is also favored to contest in this category. The Dane settled for second place in the mountain battle in the Giro d’Italia and won the battle during Paris-Nice.
Frenchman Lenny Martinez is back in the saddle after an impressive display in 2025. The youngster fought hard for the polka dot jersey, but had to settle for third behind “Pogi” and Jonas. Martinez is yet to win a King of the Mountains classification this season, but finished third in this contest during the Tour de Suisse.
swipe to see more
Odds for Winning Nationality
Two Nations sit front of mind when assessing the nationality of the winning rider. They are Slovenia and Denmark. These two countries are the only two to have produced a winning rider in this decade, thanks to Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard. Leading into 2026, Slovenia has captured four Tour de France titles since 2020, while Denmark has two under its belt. While the interest in Briton Tom Pidcock is growing, it’s hard to see the Union Jack being raised at the end of stage 21.
swipe to see more
Margin of Victory Odds
The final betting market provided by Polymarket for the 2026 Tour de France is the margin of victory. Over the last 10 years, only 20% of the winning riders have prevailed by under one minute. Those riders were Tadej Pogačar in 2020 and Chris Froome in 2017. The most common margin of victory in recent years sits between 1:00 and 2:59, with three riders winning by this margin since 2016.
“Pogi” remains the only rider to win a Tour between 5:00 and 6:59 in the past 10 years, a feat he’s achieved on two occasions. Finally, only three riders have clinched the Grandest Tour in Cycling by more than seven minutes since 1997. The most recent came from Jonas Vingegaard in 2023, when he won by 7:29. Overall, if we look at the historical results, the most likely margin of victory is set to be between 1:00 and 4:59.
swipe to see more
Where to Bet on Tour de France
Bets for the 2026 Tour de France can be placed at our partner sportsbooks, including Polymarket and DraftKings. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbet’s comprehensive Tour de France Betting Guide.
21+ Please refer to Affiliated Operators’ T&C. Void where prohibited. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related Posts:
Tour de France Jersey Colors Explained
Ultimate Guide on Betting on the Tour de France
Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo.
Related Posts
2025 Tour de France Stage 9 Report
If victories were determined by effort, Mathieu van der Poel would be wearing the yellow jersey heading into day 10. The Dutchman broke away from the peloton for most of the race, but was caught inside the final kilometre of the day. There were no other changes to the general classification, King of the Mountains, or …
2025 Tour de France Stage 19 Report: Thymen Arensman Wins His 2nd Stage
Another mountain stage has passed, and it was another victory for the “Low Country” and Thymen Arensman. The Dutchman secured his second victory of the race, reaching the summit of the La Plagne climb, just ahead of Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Florian Lipowitz. The young German rider extended his lead over Oscar Onley in …
2025 Tour de France Stage 4 Report
We couldn’t have asked for a better finish to proceedings than the one we were treated to today. Tadej Pogačar claimed his 100th career stage win and provided a taste of the tussle that is to come with Jonas Vingegaard. Find out what happened below in our 2025 Tour de France Stage 4 report. Bets …
2025 Tour de France Stage 1 Report
We are up and pedaling in La République for the 112th edition of the world’s most famous cycling race. Riders set off from Lille, and Team Cofidis was the first to capitalize, courtesy of Benjamin Thomas. The Frenchman snatched the first King of the Mountain point and formed part of the breakaway that was eventually …