Best Bets: 2024 AMA 450MX Southwick National Pre-Event Odds Analysis

Odds Subject to Change

Please note, the odds provided herein reflect the raw probability odds for this analysis and are based on the information available at the time of publishing. Different sportsbooks may adjust these odds based on market conditions, bettor behaviors, and other factors that could influence the betting landscape. For a deeper understanding of why odds for alternative sports betting change and how it might affect your betting strategy, we encourage you to read our detailed article: Why Do Alternative Sports Betting Odds Change?. Make informed decisions and always check the latest odds with your sportsbook before placing bets.

Best Bets and Picks for the Southwick National

Top Picks and Bets

All eyes are on Jett Lawrence (-456) as he looks to continue his scorching form at Southwick. The defending champion’s perfect 1-1 performance at High Point was a stark reminder of his otherworldly talent and racecraft. Jett’s ability to find new lines and maintain a blistering pace even as the track deteriorates is the stuff of legend. Southwick’s ever-changing sand is the ultimate test of a rider’s creativity and adaptability, and that plays right into Jett’s hands. If his dominant victory at this venue in 2023 is any indication, the #1 Honda will be the one to beat. Expect Jett to come out swinging as he aims to chip away at his brother’s points lead and position himself for another title run.

But Chase Sexton (+952) won’t be content to play second fiddle. The gritty KTM rider has been a paragon of consistency, notching podium finishes at almost every round thus far. Sexton’s no-nonsense approach and unwavering focus could pay major dividends at a track that punishes even the slightest lapse in concentration. The #4 will undoubtedly draw confidence from his hard-fought runner-up finish at Southwick in 2023, where he overcame a lackluster start in Moto 2 to charge through the field. If Sexton can nail his starts and stay mistake-free, he has the pace and tenacity to take the fight to the Lawrences.

Rounding out the top picks is the points leader and unflappable Hunter Lawrence (+1139). The elder Lawrence brother has been a revelation this season, combining silky-smooth style with unwavering poise under pressure. Hunter’s cerebral approach to racing has paid dividends, as he consistently puts himself in the right place at the right time. While the deep Southwick sand presents a unique challenge, Hunter’s ability to maintain momentum and find traction in tricky conditions bodes well. If he can get out front early and control the pace like he has so often this season, a third overall victory could be in the cards. But with Jett and Sexton breathing down his neck, Hunter will need to be at the top of his game to defend his hard-earned championship lead.

Outsider Picks

Don’t sleep on Aaron Plessinger (+3884) as a potential spoiler at Southwick. He’s been methodically building momentum, reeling off a pair of top-five finishes in the last two rounds. Plessinger’s laid-back persona masks a fierce competitive drive and a deep well of talent, particularly in the sand. His fluid, instinctive riding style is tailor-made for Southwick’s ever-changing conditions, where adaptability and creativity are key. Plessinger’s ability to find traction and maintain flow in the most challenging sections of the track could propel him to a breakthrough podium finish.

Dylan Ferrandis (+3884) is another outsider with the potential to shake up the established order. The mercurial Frenchman has endured a rollercoaster season, interspersing flashes of brilliance with head-scratching inconsistency. But counting out a two-time champion with a wealth of sand-riding experience would be folly. Ferrandis cut his teeth in the unforgiving dunes of Europe, honing the throttle control, line selection, and mental toughness demanded by tracks like Southwick. The Phoenix Racing Honda rider’s third-place finish in Southwick last year, where he diced with the leaders and set the fastest lap of Moto 2, is a testament to his potential. If Ferrandis can recapture that form and maintain his focus for the full duration of both motos, a podium finish is well within reach.

Rounding out the outsider picks is second-year 450MX rider Justin Cooper (+6073). The likable New Yorker has shown glimpses of raw speed and potential, but has yet to harness that promise into a breakthrough result. Cooper’s smooth, precise riding style is well-suited to Southwick’s sandy terrain, where patience and throttle control are paramount. His impressive second-place qualifying performance at High Point hints at untapped potential. While Cooper’s relative inexperience in the 450 class could work against him, his poise and race craft belie his years. A mistake-free ride and a bit of luck could see Cooper challenge for a career-best result and solidify his status as a rising star in the 450 ranks.

Expert Pick for the Southwick National

The expert pick for Southwick is Chase Sexton. His aggressive riding style, exceptional fitness, and mental toughness are ideally suited to the demanding sand track. Sexton’s recent improvements in starts and opening-lap passes suggest he’s primed for a breakout performance. He’s searching for second overall victory of the season and Southwick presents a golden opportunity for Sexton to hit his stride and stamp his authority on the championship race. The generous +952 odds are an enticing proposition to boot.

Head-To-Head Picks

The head-to-head matchups promise no shortage of intrigue at Southwick. The Justin Barcia vs. Christian Craig battle is a toss-up between two riders seeking consistency, while the marquee Hunter Lawrence vs. Chase Sexton matchup could swing Sexton’s way if the track gets rough and choppy. The all-French duel of Dylan Ferrandis vs. Aaron Plessinger pits precision against aggression in what should be a compelling clash of styles. And in the Jason Anderson vs. Justin Cooper matchup, Anderson’s wily veteran savvy gives him the edge over his talented but less experienced rival.

Where to Bet on the Southwick National

Bets for the Southwick National can be placed at our partner sportsbooks. Don’t forget to check the latest odds and promotions before placing your bets. If you’re new to the betting scene, check out NXTbet’s comprehensive SuperMotocross Betting Guide. 

As the Southwick National looms, one thing is certain: the “Sandbox” will deliver a hefty dose of high-stakes drama. With crucial championship points on the line and a hungry pack of competitors eager to make their mark, expect bar-to-bar battles from the first gate drop to the final checkered flag. The Lawrences, Sexton, Plessinger, Ferrandis, and Cooper all have the potential to make a statement in the Southwick sand. One thing’s for sure – you won’t want to miss a second of the action. Tune in, hold on tight, and get ready for an unforgettable day of racing at the legendary Wick 338. Stay locked in all season long for the most in-depth analysis, insider insights, and expert picks as the 2024 Pro Motocross Championship builds to a SuperMotocross crescendo.

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